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BRIAN HOOPS

October 6, 2017
Farm News

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week $.02 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 233,800 mts of corn to an unknown destination.

Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of 12.6 mb (320,200 mt) with all for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 446.8 mb, 39 percent less than the previous marketing year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, NASS reported US corn crop conditions at 61 percent good/excellent versus 60 percent expected, unchanged from 61 percent last week and well below the 74 percent last year. US corn harvest is 11 percent complete versus 14 percent expected, up from 7 percent last week and slightly behind the average pace of 17 percent.

In the EIA report; US ethanol production fell for the second week in a row, seeing another 14,000 barrel slowdown. Production for the week ended September 15, came in at 1.033 million barrels. Ethanol stocks are at 21.138 million barrels which is 5.6 percent higher than the stocks one year ago. The quarterly stocks report revealed corn stocks as of September 1st to total 2.294 billion bushels. This was slightly lower than the average trade estimate of 2.353 billion bushels and approximately 32 percent higher than stocks at this time last year.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should only make sales that address cash flow need during harvest and store balance of production, but not in commercial storage facilities.

Soybean analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.17 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mts of soybeans to China and 132,000 mts of soybeans to an unknown destination.

Weekly export sales of soybeans showed a total of 114.0 mb (3,102,700 mt), with 109.6 mb (2,982,700 mt) for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 819.9 mb, 15 percent less than the previous marketing year. In the weekly crop conditions report, NASS reported US soybean crop conditions at 60 percent good/excellent versus 59 percent expected, up 1 percent from 59 percent last week and well below the 73 percent last year.

US soybean harvest advanced to 10 percent complete versus 11 percent expected, 4 percent last week and 12 percent average.

The quarterly stocks report placed U.S. soybean stocks as of September 1st came in at 301.3 million bushels, this was slightly below the average trade estimate of 338 million bushels but still 53 percent higher than soybean stocks one year ago.

Soybeans are rallying on the strength of very strong export demand for soybeans. It is common for demand to improve this time of year as foreign buyers rush to secure newly harvested soybeans. This strong demand and fund short covering, places pressure on the bears.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should have made sales that address cash flow need during harvest. Do not store soybeans in commercial storage.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution's Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

 
 

 

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