Money management tugs
Have you ever wondered why it is so hard to figure out the commodity markets? Why is it that so many of us fail to market and trade well, leaving large sums of money on the table due to poor marketing or allowing “the board” to get our money when trying to invest? Much of the stress and failures can be tied to our own psychology. Everything we have been taught, every rational or logical thought is thrown by the wayside in the commodity markets. Where in the real world, a red light means stop; a red light means go in the commodity markets. How many times have you heard of a market receiving bullish fundamental data from a monthly USDA report only to end sharply lower after receiving the news? It is hard to understand the psychology of the markets, but even harder to understand our own emotional and rational thinking. A number of years ago, a reporter asked a well-known commodity trader about his odds of making money in the commodity markets. The trader replied with a straight face, “the odds are 50-50 you will lose 90 percent of the time.” Generally speaking, it is well believed that over 80 percent of the participants in the marketplace will lose money each year. It is the minority, the 20 percent, who make money. To examine how your mind works in a trading situation, let’s take a simple test. I will give you four trade scenarios for you to consider: ONE: There are two possible outcomes of the first trade: A) A sure win of $3,000 or; B) an 80 percent chance of winning $4,000 with a 20 percent chance of making nothing. Which will you take No. 1 or No. 2? TWO: Our next trade is a choice between: A) A sure loss of $3,000 or; B) an 80 percent chance of losing $4,000 and a 20 percent chance of losing nothing. If you don’t understand, read again and then decide which outcome you will choose, No 1 or No. 2. If you are like most people, in scenario one you opted for the sure $3,000 gain. In terms of math, though, the second choice was better $4,000 x 80 percent = $3,200. In scenario two, about 90 percent of people select the second choice, losing an additional $1,000 to gain a 20 percent chance of losing nothing. A pair of professors at the University of Chicago have conducted this survey and many other similar tests and have come away with a fascinating discovery for commodity traders. The bottom line of about 10 years of research and testing over 100,000 minds is: The typical person avoids risk when seeking gains and the typical person embraces risk to avoid losses. It gets down to this; the way we are made is such that the fear of loss is more powerful than the hope of gain. So guess what happens when it comes to trading? The fear of loss forces you to take additional risk — the risk of removing your stop or simply trading without one. The other side of the coin is that we avoid risk when seeking gains. Hence, once you’ve got a profit — you will exit too soon to avoid further risk of getting greater gain. Now that you know how you act and react, you need to purge and cleanse that old noggin to a winners’ way of thinking. Let profits run and cut losses short.
CORN ANALYSIS Corn closed the week $.16 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any private sales. The weekly export sales report showed net sales of 1.5 metric tons — a marketing-year high — were up 46 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior four-week average. This year’s net export profile is now at 1.236 billion bushels versus the USDA forecast of 1.950 bb. Strategy and outlook: Producers are now sold/hedged on 80 percent of the 2010 crop and re-owned 35 percent of sales/hedges with at the money May call options after rolling up March $5.20 calls. Producers should have 30 percent of new crop production sold. Make another old and new crop 10 percent sale at $7.59.
Soybean analysis Soybeans closed the week $.48 1/2 higher from last week. This year’s exportpace stands at 1.429 bb versus the USDA forecast of 1.590 bb. Strategy and outlook: South American producers will become active hedgers if forecasts turn wetter. Producers have sold/hedged 70 percent of the 2010 crop and re-owned 35 percent of sales/hedges with at the money May call options after rolling up March calls. Producers should have 30 percent of new crop production sold. Make another 10 percent sale of old and new crop at $14.85.
Brian Hoops is president and senior market analyst of Midwest Market Solutions Inc. Midwest Market Solutions is a full-service commodity brokerage and marketing advisory service, clearing through R.J. O’Brien.
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