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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | May 16, 2014

There are now 3.2 million farmers operating 2.1 million farms on 914.5 million acres of farmland across the United States, according to the 2012 Census of Agriculture, released Friday.

Both sales and production expenses reached record highs in 2012.

U.S. producers sold $394.6 billion worth of agricultural products, but it cost them $328.9 billion to produce these products.

Organic sales were growing, but accounted for just 0.8 percent of the total value of U.S. agricultural production.

Farms with Internet access rose from 56.5 percent in 2007 to 69.6 percent in 2012.

Corn and soybean acres topped 50 percent of all harvested acres for the first time. The largest category of operations was beef cattle with 619,172, or 29 percent, of all farms and ranches in 2012 specializing in cattle.

CORN ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week 8.75 cents higher. Last week, private exporters announced 100,000 mt of corn previously sold to Spain has been sold as well as 120,000 mt of corn to an unknown destination.

Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of only 6.4 mb, the lowest weekly total since early January.

To reach the current USDA forecast, corn only needs to average 3.6 mb needed each week.

USDA’s weekly crop progress report showed corn plantings advanced to 29 percent completed, up from 19 percent last week, but still below the average pace of 42 percent.

Meanwhile, emergence is only 7 percent, up from 5 percent last year, but below the five-year average of 13 percent.

In the monthly supply/demand report, USDA cut old crop carryout to 1.146 bb, and forecast new crop carryout at 1.726 bb.

This was larger than the trade estimated as USDA forecast crop yields at 165.3 bpa.

There are two ways to look at this.

First, is bearish in the near term as good weather will weigh on the market as it expects this year to be realized.

However, any stretches of poor weather during the growing season will have the trade thinking this is the largest yield estimate of the year.

With 4 million less corn acres this year, the market will be more sensitive this year to weather issues should they arise.

Also, exports were increased for old crop by 150 mb, at 1.9 billion now, while new crop exports were projected at 1.7 billion bushels.

SOYBEANS ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week 14.75 cents higher from last week.

Last week, private exporters announced a sale of 140,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to an unknown destination.

Weekly export sales of soybeans showed 1.5 million bushels for old crop and leaves the total commitments at 1.64 billion bushels.

This is still well above the current USDA estimate of 1.58 bb, with only 17 weeks left in the marketing year.

In the weekly crop progress report, USDA said soybean plantings are 5 percent done versus the average of 11 percent.

USDA reported the U.S. will import a record 90 mb of beans in this current marketing year, up from the 65 mb projected in April.

Soybeans for crushing were raised 10 mb to 1.695 bb and exports were increased to 1.6 bb, up 20 mb from April.

This resulted in an ending stocks figure of 130 mb. The new-crop soybean balance sheet incorporated the March acreage numbers and the yield number, which resulted in a forecast of an all-time record production figure of 3.635 bb.

Crush and exports were projected to see marginal increases for 2014/15, so with the higher production estimate, ending stocks were forecast to grow from 130 mb to 330 mb.

Old crop soybeans look to test and make new highs as we still have not solved the demand puzzle that has pushed soybeans higher than expected this spring.

Strategy and outlook: Producers are 100 percent sold of the 2013/14 crop. Producers are 25 percent sold of 2014/15 production.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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