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By Staff | Sep 26, 2014

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week 6.75 cents lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 495,936 metric tons of corn to Mexico.

Weekly export sales of corn showed sales of 26 million bushels.

In the weekly crop progress report, national good-to-excellent rating for corn held steady at 74 percent.

The crop is now estimated to be 82 percent dented versus the five-year average of 85 percent, and the crop is estimated to be 27 percent mature versus the five-year average of 39 percent.

According to the USDA, corn harvest is now 4 percent complete. The five-year average is 9 percent harvested. In an FSA report, the agency revealed that 1.58 million corn acres didn’t get planted.

Last month the FSA estimated that 1.54 million corn acres didn’t get planted, and in 2013 3.62 million acres didn’t get planted.

Total planted acres were reported at 84.8 million. Informa estimated 2015 corn acreage at 87.3 million versus 91.641 in 2014, 4.34 million fewer acres.

Corn harvest is just beginning and corn prices have already nearly fallen to long-term support.

If $3.20 is broken, next weekly chart support for corn is $2.75 to $2.80. With huge yield results already trickling in, it is too early to anticipate a harvest low forming.

Strategy and outline: Producers are 25 percent sold of the 2014/15 crop and own December puts on 75 percent of the crop. They should exit puts at $3.

Soybeans analysis

Soybeans closed the week 27 cents lower from last week. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 2.08 million

metric tons of soybeans to China.

Weekly export sales of soybeans showed sales of 54 million bushels.

In the weekly crop progress report, the national good/excellent rating for soybeans was unchanged from the prior week at 72 percent in the weekly crop progress report.

Twenty- four percent of the crop is estimated to be dropping leaves compared to the five-year average of 32 percent.

Due to adverse weather this spring, the FSA revealed that 841,063 acres did not get planted. This is up from 827,131 acres estimate in August, and down from 1.70 million acres in 2013. Total planted acres were reported at 80.80 million.

The NOPA soybean crush report showed 110.6 mb soybeans crushed in August, below trade estimates.

Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.21 billion pounds; the lowest since December 2004 at 973.4 and January 2005 at 1.217 billion pounds. Informa estimated 2015 soybean acreage at 87.7 million vs. 84.839 million in 2014; up 2.86 million.

The early stages of harvest are uncovering record large soybean yields.

While demand is starting to pick up, harvest lows are not due until Oct. 2. Lows should occur later this year due to the harvest running several weeks behind normal.

Strategy and outline: Producers are 25 percent sold of 2014/15 production. Producers own puts on 75 percent of the crop. They should exit at $8.80.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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