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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | Jul 24, 2015

Ag spending

The House Appropriations Committee has approved the fiscal year 2016 agriculture spending bill, including nearly $144 billion for mandatory nutrition and farm programs.

In addition, there is nearly $21 billion in discretionary spending. The total spend is $175 million below the current fiscal year and $1.1 billion below the president’s budget request.

The committee adopted three amendments, including the manager’s amendment. One provision would stop beef imports from Argentina and Brazil, due to concerns about Foot and Mouth Disease.

There was an attempt to end crop insurance premium subsidies for farmers who earn more than $250,000 per year, but that was rejected.

Monsanto, Syngenta

Any hostile bid by Monsanto Co. for Swiss rival Syngenta AG is some way off, the U.S. seed company’s president and chief operating officer told Reuters, adding he was focused on trying to secure a negotiated deal.

Monsanto, the world’s biggest seed company, is keen to know more about Syngenta’s research capabilities, product liability exposure and the quality of its reported sales, Brett Begemann said.

So taking an offer directly to Syngenta shareholders, without seeing the Swiss company’s books, was “not a very compelling idea,” Begemann said. “It’s too early to say (we’ve) ruled it out,” he added, but any hostile bid was “a ways out yet.”

CORN ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week 13 cents lower.

Last week, private exporters reported sale of 121,927 metric tons of corn to Mexico.

Weekly export sales showed corn sales were 25.5 million bushels for both old and new crop.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, the trade was looking for conditions to be unchanged to 2 percent lower.

Corn ratings held steady for the second consecutive week at 69 percent good-to-excellent, still behind last year’s 76 percent rating.

Illinois fell to 56 percent and Ohio fell to 41 percent, but modest improvements were noted in Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and the Dakotas.

Iowa was unchanged at 72 percent.

Weather has improved as the eastern Corn Belt dried up considerably and weather has returned to a more normal pattern.

The USDA is unlikely to make major yield changes until field surveys are completed.

We noted corn had major resistance on the weekly charts at $4.47, a price level it tested and failed at. This indicates at least a short term top is in place, although the crop has a long ways to go before its made.

Strategy and outlook Producers are 100 percent sold of the 2014/15 crop, re-owned 50 percent with September calls, liquidate now. Sold 50 percent of 2015 production and own December puts on balance of production. Sold 20 percent of 2016 crop.

SOYBEANS ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week15.75 cents lower.

Last week, private exporters did not report any private sales.

Weekly export sales of soybeans totaled 20.3 mb for old and new crop.

The weekly U.S. crop progress report showed soybean ratings fell to 62 percent g/e and the crop is now 10 percent behind last year’s crop.

Illinois and Indiana fell to 48 percent and 43 percent, Ohio declined to 42 percent.

Modest gains were reported in Nebraska at 71 percent and the Dakotas.

Indiana’s crop is the second lowest rated crop since 1996, while Minnesota has its highest rated crop in history at 78 percent.

The NOPA crush report came in near expectations at 142.5 mb.

Trade was expecting June crush to be the second largest on record at 142.3 mb and the actual figure just slightly exceeded the average estimate.

The meal has been the bullish stalwart of the soy complex, dragging soybeans higher.

Soybeans did fail at major weekly resistance of $10.38 1/2, suggesting prices will not be able to work above this level as commercials were big sellers.

The wet areas of Southwest Iowa and Northwest Missouri have been seeded as producers choose not to take the preventive planting option.

Prices are likely to work lower until harvest begins unless threatening weather develops across the Midwest again.

Strategy and outlook: Producers are sold 100 percent of 2014/15 production and sold 50 percent of 2015/16 production and own November puts on balance of production.

They sold 20 percent of 2016 November.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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