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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | Aug 28, 2015

Crop tour

The Pro Farmer Tour has concluded and pegged the corn crop at a yield of 164.3 bushels per acre and production of 13.3 billion bushels, the third largest crop in history, while the soybean crop is estimated at 3.887 bb, the second largest in history with a yield of 46.5 bpa.

The tour concluded the Iowa corn crop would be 181 bpa, with Minnesota 178 bpa, Illinois 169 bpa, Nebraska 178 bpa and South Dakota 160 bpa.

State by state breakdown for the soybean crop shows Iowa at 54 bpa, Minnesota 46 bpa, Nebraska 55.5 bpa, South Dakota 47 bpa and Illinois 50.5 bpa.

Current USDA estimates for the 2015 corn crop are 13.7 bb production and yield of 168.8 bpa, while soybean crop is estimated at 3.92 bb with a yield of 46.9 bpa.

Smithfield profits fall

Smithfield Foods reports quarterly profits of just over $102 million, down 27 percent from a year ago.

Quarterly sales dropped 9 percent to nearly $3.5 billion. Smithfield’s hog production and fresh pork divisions were impacted by lower prices.

Currency valuations also influenced exports.

Equipment sales fall

Sales of larger, late-model used combines, tractors and planters have been sluggish, according to Machinery Pete, Greg Peterson.

“There are a lot of bargins out there and a lot for sale,” said Peterson, “The larger horsepower tractors that are a couple years old have been a little soft at auction and self-propelled sprayers have been pretty weak.”

While the larger late-model equipment sales remains slow, sales of smaller livestock-related equipment are very strong, Peterson said.

Prevented planting

The Farm Service Agency reports prevented plantings of 2.3 million acres of corn, 2.1 million acres of soybeans and 693,000 acres of wheat.

That compares to 1.5 million acres of corn, 827,000 acres of soybeans and 1.2 million acres of wheat reported as prevent plant last year.

CORN ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week 1.5 cents higher.

Last week, private exporters reported sales of 193,040 metric tons to Mexico.

Weekly export sales showed corn sales were 23 million bushels for new crop corn, a marketing year high.

New crop sales are 40 percent behind last year’s sales pace.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, USDA reported 71 percent of the corn in the dough stage versus 50 percent last week.

Corn dented totaled 21 percent versus the five-year average of 28 percent.

The good-to-excellent category saw a 1 percent drop from last week to 69 percent, while the very poor category increased from 2 percent to 3 percent.

Minnesota’s crop is rated 88 percent g/e, the third highest on record, while the crop in Illinois is rated 56 percent g/e, Iowa is rated 82 percent, Nebraska 78 percent and Indiana is 48 percent.

Corn has found solid support near the $3.61 area, but this level looks to give way during the early stages of harvest as harvest pressure will weigh on prices.

Seasonally, a small rally ends by Aug. 24 and then prices work lower until early October. Look for harvest lows to occur between $3.30 and $3.40.

Strategy and outlook: Producers are:

  • 100 percent sold of the 2014/15 crop.
  • Sold 50 percent of 2015 production.
  • Own December puts on balance of production.
  • Sold 20 percent of 2016 crop.

SOYBEANS ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week 26 cents lower.

Last week, private exporters did not report any private sales. Weekly export sales of new crop soybeans were 29 mb. New crop sales are 47 percent behind last year’s sales and the slowest pace since 2008.

The weekly crop progress report showed 93 percent of the soybeans in the blooming stage compared to 88 percent last week. The five-year average is 95 percent.

Soybeans setting pods is 79 percent, matching the five-year average.

The condition of the crop was left unchanged from last week at 63 percent g/e. Iowa is rated 77 percent g/e, Minnesota 80 percent, Nebraska 73 percent, while Illinois is 50 percent and Indiana is 48 percent.

The NOPA crush report came in at a record 145.22 mb, breaking the previous record of 142.5 mb in July 2006.

The average estimate for July was 141.47 mb versus 142.5 mb in June.

In the first 11 months of the 2014/15 marketing year, nine have seen soybean crush match or exceed previous record levels for the corresponding month.

The USDA’s recently raised old crop crush estimate of 1.84 bb, already looks as if it will be too low given marketing year-to-date estimated U.S. total crush of 1.723 bb.

With only one month of data remaining for 2014/15, August NOPA crush would need to be only about 116 mb if the USDA’s annual estimate is not to be exceeded

Strategy and outlook: Producers

  • Sold 100 percent of 2014/15 production.
  • Sold 50 percent of 2015/16 production.
  • Own November puts on balance of production.
  • Sold 20 percent of 2016 November.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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