The revenue insurance guarantee for soybeans looks to be $10.19 per bushel, which is up 15 percent, from last year. The average price for February for November soybeans is up $1.34 compared to last spring’s price so that’s a positive for all of the ag producers.
The guarantee is further incentive to plant soybeans. The average February closing price for December corn is $3.96, up a dime from a year ago, and the spring wheat guaranteed price is $5.65, up 52 cents from last year.
Just say, “no.”
When it comes to profitability on the farm, Wells Fargo Chief Agricultural Economist Michael Swanson said it’s about a good marketing plan and a great yield. Swanson also said the land market is still broken.
The land market is not fair. Bad ground gets rented out for almost as much as good ground because there is no discipline.
That’s not the landlord’s problem. The biggest place to make your money is to say no to bad ground.
It hasn’t changed in the last two years. It’s still on farmers to say no to bad ground.
Corn closed the week 16 cents lower.
Last week, private exporters announced sale of 120,000 metric tons of corn to Japan and 120,000 mt of corn to an unknown destination.
Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of 32.8 mb (834,100 mt) with 29.2 mb (741,100) for the 2016-2017 marketing year. This was above the 19 mb (483,000 mt) needed this week to be on pace with USDA’s February demand projection of 2.225 billion bushels.
Ethanol production was supportive once again as production topped 1 million barrels per day for the 19th consecutive week.
Weekly ethanol production was 1.022 billion bpd versus 1.034 billion bpd the previous week, the fourth consecutive week over lower production.
In the monthly supply/demand report, U.S. corn ending stocks were left at 2.3 billion bushels, unchanged from the previous month.
Ethanol usage was increased by 50 mb, however feed usage was decreased by the same amount. World corn
ending stocks were 220.68 million tonnes, an increase of 2.17 million tonnes.
Argentina corn production increased 1 million tonnes to 37.5 million metric tons and Brazil corn production increased 5 million tonnes to 91.5 mmt.
In the next several weeks, we should expect corn will find strength in the last half of March and early April as the market will need to secure acres to meet record demand.
Commercial entities as well as large speculators will want to be long ahead of the growing season. Highs for corn are likely to be scored during the spring planting
time frame or very early summer as values rally to secure enough planted acres to meet record demand.
Strategy and outlook: A rally into weekly resistance was a great time to sell inventory, look to re-own on support as commercials have been big sellers lately.
Soybeans closed the week 29.75 cents lower.
Last week, private exporters reported a sale of 122,000 mt of soybean meal to the Philippines.
Weekly export sales of soybeans showed a total of 18.9 mb (515,100 mt) with 17.8 mb (485,500 mt) for the
2016-2017 marketing year. This was above the 4.5 mb (121,200 mt) needed this week to be on pace with
USDA’s February demand projection of 2.05 bb.
In the monthly supply/demand report, U.S. soybean ending stocks were estimated at 435 mb, up 15 mb from the previous month as the USDA lowered U.S. exports by 25 mb and increased crush by 10 mb.
World ending stocks were 82.82 million tonnes, an increase of 2.44 million tonnes. USDA predicted Argentina soybean production unchanged at 55.5 million tonnes while Brazil’s crop was raised by 4 million tonnes to 108 mmt.
The key pod setting stage in South America should be completed by March 15, leaving the market to remove any weather premium that may remain in values.
In the March 31 acreage report, the trade should be expecting an increase in U.S. soybean seedings of 2 to 4 million acres. If wet growing conditions materialize this spring as forecast, corn will rally to buy acres as the market anticipate farmers will shift corn acres to soybeans.
A very wet forecast will limit the upside for soybeans.
Strategy and outlook: Maintain re-ownership strategies into the summer months.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.
Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.
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