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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | Sep 22, 2017

Unless lawmakers take action, there will be automatic changes to Iowa’s beginning farmer tax credit program on Jan. 1, 2018. The beginning farmer tax credit program was created by the legislature in 2006. In 2013, lawmakers changed the guidelines and dollar figures for the program, but that legislation expires this year. The program will remain in place, but without further legislative action, the financial guidelines for the program revert to 2012 levels.

Officials at the Iowa Finance Authority say the changes will not affect farmers or landlords using the tax credit program this year, but that on Jan. 1, the levels will change.

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week $.01 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not report any private sales. Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of 41.2 mb (1,046,700 mt) with all for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 413.5 mb, 38 percent less than the previous marketing year due to smaller carryover from the previous marketing year’s unshipped sales. In the weekly crop conditions report, US corn crop conditions were unchanged at 61 percent good/excellent versus 61 percent expected, 61 percent last week and 74 percent last year. 75 percent of the nation’s corn crop is dented, down slightly from the average of 81 percent. US corn harvest is 5 percent complete versus 4 percent expected, right in line with the average of 6 percent. In the monthly supply/demand report, the USDA slightly revised the 2017-18 corn crop yield, raising the yield by 0.4 bu/acre to 169.9 bu/acre. The average trade estimate predicted a yield of 168.2 bu/acre. Production for the 2017-18 crop year is now pegged at 14.184 billion bushels. The USDA decreased its estimate for the old crop carryout to 2.35 billion bushels from 2.37 billion bushels. New crop carryout was bumped up to 2.335 billion bushels from 2.273 billion bushels.

This report could be the last of the bearish news as next month’s report will have actual harvest data and actual yields should come in below this figure from the USDA. Harvest lows are likely being scored now.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should only make sales that address cash flow need during harvest and store balance of production

Soybeans analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.07 higher. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 400,000 mts of soybeans

to China.

Weekly export sales of soybeans showed a total of 59.3 mb (1,613,400 mt), with nearly all for the 2017-2018

marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 624.4 mb, 28 percent less than the previous marketing year due

to smaller carryover for the previous year’s unshipped sales. Initial shipments of 42.3 mb (1,151,500 mt) were

6 percent less than what was reported the previous year. In the weekly crop conditions report, US soybean crop conditions were down 1 percent to 60 percent good/excellent versus 60 percent expected versus 61 percent last week and 73 percent last year. 22 percent of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, just behind the average pace of 25 percent. In the supply/demand report, the USDA revised its estimated 2017-18 soybean crop yield, raising the yield by 0.5 bu/acre to 49.9 bu/acre.

The average trade estimate predicted a yield of 48.8 bu/acre. Production for the 2017-18 crop year is now pegged at 4.431 billion bushels. The USDA decreased its estimate for the old crop carryout to 345 million bushels from 370 million bushels. The new crop carryout was unchanged at 475 million bushels. Like corn, harvest lows are likely being scored now as yields in the next report should come in below this level. In the monthly NOPA crush report, NOPA crush larger than expected at 142.42 mb vs. est of 137.5 mb. This was sharply above last year of 131.8 mb and largest since 2007.

Strategy and outlook

Producers only make sales that address cash flow need during harvest and sell the balance on ralliesash flow need during harvest and store balance of production.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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