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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | Oct 20, 2017

Before USDA moves certain aspects of the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration into the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Organization for Competitive Markets wants to meet with Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. OCM claims there are problems with the beef and dairy checkoff programs that should be addressed before realignment.

OCM is opposed to mandatory checkoff programs and wants more transparency and federal oversight.

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week $.06 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 195,000 mts of corn to an unknown destination and 597,464 mts to Mexico.

Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of 32.0 mb (814,100 mt) with all for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 478.9 mb, 41 percent less than the previous marketing year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, NASS reported US corn crop conditions improved 2 percent to 63 percent good/excellent versus 61 percent expected, from 61 percent last week and 73 percent last year.

US corn harvest is now 17 percent complete versus 21 percent expected versus 11 percent last week and 26 percent average.

In the weekly EIA report, ethanol production rose 14,000 bpd to 1.01 bpd versus 996,000 the prior week; stocks rose 805,000 barrels to 21.55 million barrels.

Informa estimated US 2017 corn yield near 170.5 bpa vs USDA 169.9 bpa. This would place production at 14.182 bb. The October supply/demand report should not be a major market mover as the USDA already has large yields priced into production. Look for slow fund buying to provide producers with a sellable rally over the next several months.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should only make sales that address cash flow need during harvest and store balance of production, but not in commercial storage facilities.

Soybean analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.05 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mts of soybeans

to China.

Weekly export sales of soybeans showed a total of 37.3 mb (1,016,100 mt), with all for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 857.3 mb, 18 percent more than the previous marketing year.

In the weekly crop conditions report, NASS reported US soybean crop conditions were unchanged at 60 percent good/

excellent versus 59 percent expected versus 60 percent last week and 74 percent last year. US soybean harvest is 22 percent complete versus 25 percent expected, up from 10 percent last week and compared to 26 percent average. The quarterly stocks report placed US soybean stocks as of September 1st came in at 301.3 million bushels, Informa estimated US 2017 soybean yield near 50.0 bpa versus USDA 49.9 bpa. This would put the 2017 crop at 4.474 bb. The slow harvest pace and steady demand for US soybeans has provided support for prices. Demand won’t slow down anytime soon and producers won’t like to part with fresh harvested product with basis levels extremely wide. This should be enough to rally soybeans.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should have made sales that address cash flow need during harvest. Do not store soybeans in commercial storage.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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