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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | Nov 24, 2017

R-CALF USA has filed a complaint against another beef checkoff contractor. This allegation points to a news story quoting U.S. Meat Export Federation President and CEO Phil Seng.

Seng reportedly voiced concerns about Trump Administration trade policies and the possible withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement. R-CALF claims Seng’s comments are a direct violation of beef checkoff program rules.

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week $.00 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 133,096 mts of corn to an unknown destination.

Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of 37.6 mb (954,500 mt) with 37.4 mb (949,500 mt) for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 800.9 mb, 26% less than the previous marketing year. In the weekly crop progress report, NASS report U.S. corn harvest is now at 83 percent complete versus 83 percent expected, up from 70 percent last week and still behind the average pace of 91 percent.

In the weekly EIA report, the USDA reported ethanol numbers show a 3,000 bpd decrease in production to 1.54 million barrels which was the first weekly decline since October 6th. Weekly ethanol stocks increased by 152,000 barrels, coming in at 21.497 million barrels.

Informa estimated US 2018 corn acres near 91.4 million, up 1 million acres compared to the 90.4 million planted last year. This would produce a crop of 14,629 bb versus 14,578 bb last year.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should only make sales that address cash flow need during harvest, store balance of production and sell the carry. Do not store in commercial storage facilities.

Soybean analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.05 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any private sales. Weekly export sales of soybeans showed a total of 43.2 mb (1,176,900 mt) 40.6 mb (1,104,800 mt) for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This put total marketing year sales at 1.197 bb, 15 percent less than the previous marketing year. In the weekly crop progress report, NASS reported U.S. soybean harvest is virtually done at 93 percent complete versus 95 percent expected versus 90 percent last week and 95 percent average.

In the monthly NOPA crush report, NOPA October crush report saw 164.242 mb crushed in October, well above last month’s 136.4 mb and near expectations of 164.475 million bushels. NOPA reported a crush of 164.641 million bushels for October 2016, the largest crush on record for the month, so this year was just below the all time report. NOPA reported a September crush of 136.419 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were 1.224 billion pounds, well below estimates for October would total 1.410 billion lbs, up from 1.302 billion lbs at the end of September. NOPA reported soyoil stocks of 1.343 billion lbs at the end of October 2016. Informa estimated U.S. 2018 soybean acres near 89.6 million versus 90.2 million planted in 2017. This would produce a crop of 4,397 mb versus 4,425 mb last year. Seasonals are higher for soybeans

Strategy and outlook

Producers should have made sales that address cash flow need during harvest. Do not store soybeans in commercial storage.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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