Weekly market review
Harvest progress released last Monday was at 26 percent complete for corn, almost 10 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Soybean harvest was also head of the 5-year average by 3 percent at 23 percent complete. Corn and soybean futures picked up some added support from the soggy forecast for much of the Midwest as harvest progress is at a standstill early in the week.
Weekly export sales for corn came in the mid-range at 56.3 million bushels, about 16 percent lower than last week. However, it is still well above the ten-week average of 27 million bushels. Mexico purchased 527,400 tons and Canada purchased 199,700 tons. Early in the marketing year, corn sales are 775.5 million bushels compared to 476.2 million bushels this time last year. Soybeans sales came in above expectations at 55.9 million bushels, which is 57 percent higher than last week. Mexico was the big buyer on soybeans at 730,400 tons and an unknown destination purchasing 247,000 tons. So far, this marketing year, soybean sales are at 741.8 million bushels compared to 854.8 million bushels at this time last year.
The USDA plans to reopen the rulemaking process known as the “Farmer Fair Practices Rules”, which was formerly known as the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA). It is intended that the USDA will put this on the spring 2019 regulatory agenda. The reopening of the GIPSA rules is leaving many industry groups uneasy as it is unclear what the scope of the rulemaking will consist of. The USDA could start over on developing new rules or finalize previous proposals.
An agreement was reached with Canada Sunday night to replace NAFTA with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The futures market reacted friendly to the news, as it is mostly friendly to corn, dairy and hogs. Impact on trade with Mexico was likely impacted the least during the whole process, as the trade reacted positively to continued export business of U.S. pork and corn to Mexico. A deal with Taiwan last week for U.S. soybeans has added strength to the soy complex.
A provision stated in the new pact between the U.S., Mexico and Canada, could reportedly limit deals with “non-market countries.” Analysts are suggesting this could prohibit the three countries from entering into agreements with China without the consent of the other countries in the pact.
News from the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture stated that the U.S. could have potentially become too trade dependent on China and that the US is pursuing new trade deals elsewhere. The trade views this as a sign the resolution of the trade war with China will not be ending soon.
U.S. ethanol production for the week ending September 28th showed a decrease of 21,000 barrels a day, putting production at 1.015 million barrels. Ethanol reserves increased by 816,000 barrels putting reserves at 23.45 million.
Reports indicate that President Trump will make an announcement on E15 while in Iowa next week. Currently, Trump is scheduled to be in Council Bluffs on Tuesday. Governor Reynolds nor Iowa Ag Secretary Mike Naig have confirmed the President’s plans to announce year-round E15 sales, but they’re both hopeful. The Renewable Fuels Association says allowing E15 to be sold year-round would allow consumers to have access to cleaner, lower-cost, higher-octane fuel.
Informa Economics released their October crop estimates Thursday 182.1 bu/acre for corn and 53.0 bu/acre for soybeans. This is .8 bu/acre higher for corn and .2 bu/acre higher for soybeans than the USDA September report. These yield numbers would estimate production at 14.89 billion for corn and 4.677 billion for soybeans.
Brazil’s early soybean planting pace is not only thought to be beneficial to yields in that country but also to demand. If Brazil can start harvest late December and have soybeans available for export in January, it is likely China will take their offerings over other suppliers. Currently, Brazil expected to export 5 MMT to China in January, which would be double the amount shipped this past January.
For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.
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