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Midwest Marketing Solutions

By Staff | Apr 18, 2019

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week $.01 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

Weekly export inspections for U.S. corn for week ended 4/04/19 of 40.8 million bushels were at the bottom end of market expectations as well as below last week’s 49.6 million bushels and remain substantially below year ago exports this week 76.4 million bushels.

Corn exports continue to slightly lag the roughly 42.5 million bushels/week average “needed” pace in order to reach the USDA’s 2.375 billion bushels.

U.S. corn planting is 2 percent complete nationwide versus 2 percent expected versus 2 percent last year and 2 percent average.

In the monthly supply/demand report, the USDA lowered feed and residual use, reduced corn used for ethanol and exports and increased ending stocks. Feed and residual use was lowered 75 million bushels to 5.300 billion based on corn stocks reported as of March 1.

Corn used to produce ethanol was lowered 50 million bushels to 5.500 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report.

Exports were reduced 75 million bushels to 2.300 billion, reflecting current outstanding sales and expectations of increased competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. With supply unchanged and use declining, ending stocks were raised 200 million bushels to 2.035 billion.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should use options to re-own and manage risk. Weather related rallies are selling opportunities

Soybeans analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.03 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sale of 133,759 mts of U.S. soybeans to an unknown destination.

U.S. soybean exports of 32.6 million bushels were at the top end of market expectations and up slightly from last week’s 26.9 mil bu and were notably above last year’s same-week exports of 14 mb.

Over the last six weeks, soybean exports averaged 31.0 million bushels, exactly in line with the roughly 31.3 million bushels/week average soybeans will need to reach in order for the USDA’s 1.875 billion bushel export projection to be met.

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include lower imports, higher seed use, and slightly lower ending stocks. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, down 5 million. This is still more than double last year’s 438 mb stocks figure.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should use options to re-own and manage risk. Weather related rallies are selling opportunities.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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