Midwest Marketing Solutions
Charges made in disappearance of two brothers
A Braymer, Missouri, man has been charged in connection to the disappearance of two Wisconsin brothers north of Kansas City, MO. Officials, however, have not said if they know where Nick and Justin Diemel are yet. However, “It has changed from a missing person’s case into a death investigation,” Caldwell County Sheriff Jerry Galloway said. Garland Nelson, 25, Braymer, MO, has been charged with tampering with a motor vehicle, a first-degree felony, in Caldwell County. The charge stems from the search for the 35-year-old Nick and 24-year-old Justin Diemel. The brothers own Diemel’s Livestock together near Seymour in the Green Bay, Wisconsin area.
Grain combusts in heatwave
A large outdoor soybean pile at a floodwater-surrounded grain elevator in northwest Missouri was glowing bright yellow and orange and appeared to be covered in flames, nearly two weeks after the grain combusted during a heatwave.
Earlier in the week, black smoke was seen rising from the pile, but no flames were visible. The area where the grain elevator, which is owned by Gavilon, is located between the Missouri River and Interstate 29 around Phelps City, Missouri, remains flooded by an unplugged levee breach on the river. Local roads also remain underwater or were heavily damaged from floods that began in mid-March.
Benjamin Cox charged
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an order filing and settling charges against Benjamin Cox, a trader and CFTC-registered floor broker based in Chicago, Illinois, for engaging in spoofing in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) E-mini S&P 500 and E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures markets. The CFTC order requires Cox to pay a $150,000 civil monetary penalty, suspends him from trading on or subject to the rules of any CFTC-designated exchange and all other CFTC registered entities and in all commodity interests for a period of three months, and orders him to cease and desist from violating the Commodity Exchange Act’s prohibition of spoofing and other disruptive practices.
Corn closed the week $.14 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.
In the weekly export inspections report; U.S. corn exports last week were 25.4 million bushels and were at the upper end of market expectations of 15.7-27.6 million bushels and were up from the previous week’s 17.3 mb.
Corn exports over the last eight weeks totaled 194 million bushels versus 468 million during the same period last year.
This week’s shipments did keep pace with the roughly 23.2 million bushels/week in which they will need to run over the final five weeks of 2018/19 in order to reach the USDA’s 2.100 billion bushel export projection.
In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn conditions improved 1 percent to 58 percent good/excellent versus 57 percent expected, 57 percent last week and 72 percent last year.
This is the lowest rated crop since 2012.
Iowa improved 2 percent to 65 percent good/excellent, Illinois up 1 percent to 44 percent good/excellent, Indiana up 1 percent to 36 percent, Missouri up 1 percent to 34 percent and South Dakota up 3 percent to 61 percent good/excellent; while Minnesota lost 1 percent to 56 percent, Nebraska lost 2 percent to 75 percent and North Dakota lost 2 percent to 75 percent good/excellent. 58 percent of the crop is silking versus the normal pace of 83 percent. 13 percent is in the dough stage versus normal pace of 23 percent.
The August supply/demand report promises to be a major market mover. With growing conditions improving, the report will need to be bullish to ignite additional buying interest. The report is expected to show more accurate farmers planted acres than the June acreage report. Late summer seasonal lows are scored next week.
Strategy and outlook
Producers should use more option strategies this year than in previous years to provide greater marketing flexibility.
Soybeans closed the week $.29 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters reported a sale of 104,000 mts of soybeans to an unknown destination.
In the weekly export inspections report; U.S. soybean exports were a 22-week high at 37.9 million bushels, easily beating market expectations of 14.7-29.4 million bushels as China loaded 22.0 mb.
It is estimated soybean exports will need to average roughly 28 million bushels/week over the final five full weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel export projection.
In the weekly crop conditions report; soybean conditions were unchanged for the week at 54 percent good/excellent versus 54 percent expected, 54 percent last week and 70 percent last year.
This is the lowest rated crop since 1992.
Iowa lost 2 percent to 62 percent, Illinois lost 15 to 44 percent; while Minnesota was unchanged at 60 percent, North Dakota unchanged at 65 percent, South Dakota up 3 percent to 50 percent, Nebraska up 1 percent to 74 percent and Missouri unchanged at 41 percent.
Nationally, 57 percent of the soybean crop is blooming versus 79 percent normally and 21 percent is setting pods versus 45 percent on average.
With over 70 percent of the crop planted in the month of June, lower than normal soybean yields are likely this year. Weather in August will determine longer term yields and price direction for the soybean market. Late summer seasonal lows are due by the middle of the month.
Strategy and outlook
Large carryover stocks gives the market some cushion in case of lower yields but August is the most important month for soybean production.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.
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