Weekly market review
Planting progress for the reported on May 3rd showed greater than expected progress in both corn and soybeans. Corn planting is 51% complete, which was 3-7% over expectations, 34% over the previous week and 12% ahead of the 5-year average. Corn Belt states of Iowa and Minnesota are on a torrid pace with both over 75% complete, almost double the 5-year average. Other big corn states made good progress to get ahead of the 5-year average, with only Ohio, Michigan and Missouri lagging, with Missouri the farthest behind average at only 44% complete.
Soybean planting progress was 3% greater than expected at 23% complete. This was 15% ahead of the prior week and 12% head of the 5-year average. Iowa is nearly half done with soybean planting at 46%, 37% ahead of the 5-year average. Nebraska is 22%, Minnesota is 25%, and Illinois is 19% ahead of the 5-year average. Most of the Corn Belt states are ahead of normal, only a few southern states hampered by excessive rains lag behind the average by about 10%.
Markets are starting to look at weather conditions in the U.S. more, especially after the planting progress numbers were released. Weather conditions on the fringe of the Corn Belt haven’t been as favorable as they have been for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. Parts of the Great Plains with North Dakota and South Dakota, as well as the Eastern Corn Belt with Ohio and Indiana are all lagging in comparison. In Oklahoma and Kansas, drought conditions are being talked about on the wheat crop and worries if it persist it could start stressing the corn. This will continue to be something the markets watch as the growing season is in the early stages.
There is a strong chance for widespread frost across most of the northern Midwest this weekend. The trade will be paying close attention to the severity of frost damage to crops that were planted early to see what areas, if any, will need to be replanted. The cold spell is expected to be followed by a warmer, wetter patter across the Midwest which should help aid crop development.
Dry conditions across the southern portions of Brazil are expected to continue after rainfall that was expected to hit this week was less than expected. Private analyst have reduced the expected production in the areas most affected by the dry conditions, and the market will be looking to see if those production numbers are reduced on the USDA’s supply and demand report that is set to be released on May 12th.
Ethanol production for the week ending May 1st increased 61,000 barrels per day to 598,000 barrels per day, down 42.3% from a year ago. The Midwest region showed an increase of 59,000 barrels per day. Ethanol stocks decreased 725,000 barrels to 25.6 million barrels, for the second week in a row.
For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at email@example.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.
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