Weekly Market Review
Crop ratings gave an indication of what potential damage was done by a long track derecho storm hitting Iowa and Illinois August 10th. Corn condition ratings fell 2 points to 69% good/excellent with 23% of the crop dented, just one point behind the 5-year average. The trade anticipated a 3% drop in condition ratings nationally. Iowa dropped 10% in good/excellent with Nebraska losing 5% and Illinois and South Dakota both off 3%. This was better than some talk in the trade of 12-15% shift away from good/excellent in Iowa alone.
Soybean condition ratings also fell two points to 72% good/excellent. Soybeans setting pods are five points ahead of the 5-year average at 84%. Iowa lost 8% in good/excellent condition from the previous week. As one would expect, wind damage was not as significant with soybeans compared to corn, but dryness in the 14-day model has some concerned about pod fill during this period.
Export inspections for the week ending August 13thfell below the prior week, but near the higher end of expectations for corn and soybeans. Corn loadings totaled 40.8 million bushels, with 12.5 million destine for China. Soybean inspections totaled 28.8 million bushels, with China accounting for 15.3 million. Both corn and soybean inspections are short of reaching the total needed to reach the USDA’s projections. Wheat loadings totaled 17 million bushels.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) July crush report released this week. They reported that 172.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed for the month of July, 4.7 million bushels higher than the previous July record from last year. Cumulative soybean crush remains on pace to reach the USDA’s target.
A Chinese trade official made comments this week, saying that he expected the U.S. and China to continue talks regarding the phase 1 trade deal “in the coming days”. This was a much different tone from the White House comments made earlier this week. China is well short of the commitment levels that were made in the trade agreement, but both sides remain positive about China holding up their end of the deal.
The trade will continue to monitor the results from the Pro Farmer crop tour that has been taking place this week. Up to this point both corn and soybean numbers have been relatively strong, but traders remain interested on the feedback to come from the Iowa crop. The final yield projections are set to be released at the end of the week. Early report out of Iowa are that it is much drier in areas than farmers anticipated.
Weather forecasts are remain warm and dry as we work toward the end of August. Traders have taken note of the dry conditions throughout the Midwest, with nearly half of the country receiving less than 50 percent of normal rainfall for the month of August. The dry weather combined with damaged crops from last week’s storms have provided some production concerns for traders.
For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.
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