The market continues to be heavily influenced by the deteriorating Safrinha corn crop in Brazil. It is estimated that 50 to 60 percent of the crop is in various stages of dryness. Several private analysts have decreased their corn production estimates below 100 MMT, with a lower bias moving forward. Updated forecasts remain extremely dry for the next two weeks. The USDA’s April estimate was for 109 MMT and next report will be released next week on May 12th.

Export inspections for the week ending April 29, were lower than the previous week for corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn sales totaled 5.4 million bushels, down 74% from the previous week and below the expected range. Soybean loadings totaled 6.1 million bushels, down from 10.7 million bushels the week prior, but near the higher range of expectations. Reductions were made in wheat loadings with 3.5 million bushels in old crop cancellations, the lowest amount in the marketing year, with the trade expecting 0-9 million bushels and needing 12 million bushels for the week.

Corn planting for the week ending May 2nd was 46% complete, just 2% under this week last year and a full 10% ahead of the 5-year average. Huge gains made in the western Corn Belt. Iowa jumped 49%, Nebraska 38%, Minnesota 42%, Illinois 31% and Missouri 30% over the previous week. Missouri is the only major state that lags behind their 5-year averages by a mere 12%. Corn emergence is at or better than the 5-year average in all states except Missouri. The trade was expecting 44% complete. One noteable analyst pointed out that the sooner the U.S. corn planting reaches 60% complete, the higher the chance for acreage increases from planting intentions.

Soybean planting progress tripled for the week, jumping from 8% to 24% complete, just under average trade guess of 25%. All major states are ahead of the 5-year average, with the average ahead by 13%. Iowa and Illinois both nearly 30% ahead of the 5-year average. As with corn, it would take some major weather delays to hamper progress at his point. Cool weather that hampered corn planting earlier in the month may have possibly helped push soybean planting progress as the trend to plant soybeans earlier continues.

The National Ag Statistics Service issued the March soybean crush at 188.4 million bushels, right at expectations. This is 36 million bushels ahead for the year to date. Crush numbers were viewed as neutral for soybeans, but friendly to meal and oil. The biggest bullish piece is soybean oil stocks fell 61 million pounds from February. Soybean oil has been the driver of the soybean complex and looks to continue to be.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.