The tension between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan continues to grow in real time. China announced a successful test of a hypersonic missile while three U.S. tests of similar missiles were reportedly not as successful (they evidently did not steal that intellectual property from us). There is much military capability that is kept secret on both sides that would transform war again as has happened throughout history. There would be fierce engagement in any new conflict in orbital space and in cyberspace.

The worst losses, however, may be the result of the economic war that would accompany the military one. The entire world would be thrown into economic chaos with literally billions of people suffering. The best deterrent is that both sides are aware of that and remain rational.

Ironically, navies have been best used throughout history as deterrents to war. The U.S. Navy dominance in the Blue Age has brought peace and prosperity to the world for 75 years since WWII. Once engaged in battle, the vulnerability of navies becomes exposed. Dreadnaughts/battleships litter the ocean floor and for every supposedly invincible navy there have been weapons and strategies developed to sink them. To think that U.S. carrier battlegroups can escape this reality is hubris. Missiles or torpedoes that can vaporize the water in front of them to reach hyper speeds, making them nearly indefensible, can swarm a carrier battle group. These weapons are affordable to enemies that cannot fund or build their own navy. At risk is billions and billions and thousands of sailors’ lives. If, as expected, this war would be fought in the Asian Pacific, then China has the home court advantage despite U.S. forward deployment.

There are overwhelming, compelling reasons why neither China nor the U.S. should ever want this fight. The primary reason is that despite who wins this battle, neither would win the war and the entire advancement of the human race could be upended.

Are we to believe that this president, who balked at sending a few thousand U.S. troops into Kabul to hold back the Taliban militia to better protect the exit from Afghanistan of U.S. citizens and our allies, is going to order the U.S. military to war with China over Taiwan? President Biden messed up…again…in his recent statement that the U.S. would come to the defense of Taiwan if China acted to invade the island. That is not our formal commitment to Taiwan. We have committed by agreement to help the Taiwanese defend themselves which we have been doing in providing them defensive weaponry, logistical support and military expertise, as well as economic and political aid. We have not committed however, as Biden was interpreted as saying with his in-artful statement, to going to war with China over Taiwan. That is not in the U.S. national security interest. In fact, it would be just the opposite. Publicly, Washington should continue to embrace strategic ambiguity, but privately convey to Taiwanese leaders that we will not fight a war with China. That would greatly incentivize Taipei to make whatever political moves and engage in any negotiation necessary to ensure the perpetuation of the status quo. It is up to Taiwan to convey the cost of a military incursion by China of Taiwan as their deterrent. We can help with that, but we cannot be the point of their sword. According to Gregg Easterbrook, author of the Blue Age, “The blunt, hard reality is that a Taiwan maintaining the status quo is far better than a smoldering wreck of an island conquered by Beijing.” Our military could not stop that from happening if Xi Jinping ordered the invasion of the island that they consider to be a wayward province.

The only way the U.S. could have our security harmed would be to allow ourselves to be drawn into a battle we’re likely to lose over an issue peripheral to U.S. security. My viewpoint is that given a full-blown conflict between China and the U.S., ‘no-one’ wins…everyone loses! The global economy would tank. The disruption of trade with China for U.S. agriculture would be economic depression-like in consequence. The current relationship between China and the U.S. is thought of by many China antagonists “as China winning.”

China’s military buildup is formidable, but it is designed to defend Chinese borders, coasts, seaports, trade routes and regional territorial claims. The Navy that they are building is not a Blue Water navy that would challenge ours outside of their regional sphere of influence. The carriers they built do not even have catapults to launch long range aircraft. Trade/commerce by all nations has been occurring unimpeded and supported by the Chinese who see the South China Sea as their Gulf of Mexico. Instead of being praised for that fact, they are constantly under criticism.

An expert who literally wrote the book on the rise of Japan summed it up this way, “During the 1980s everybody was afraid of Japan taking over. Instead, we found ways to do business with Tokyo, both nations improved, and America lost no ground. We should be trying the same with China. Beijing doesn’t play by the rules, and not just regarding intellectual property. We should be working out the problems that we have with China, instead of blustering. In the end both nations will be better off.”

Here in the US blustering about the evils of China is still what our politicians do most of. It is one of just a few bipartisan exercises in DC. No one wants to look soft on China. The U.S. public has bought into to the negative mindset toward China. They stole all of our jobs, right? Tariffs have had no impact bringing them back yet Biden is maintaining them seeing political consequences in removing them. Most are unwilling to challenge the assumption that China is inherently bad and our enemy. Even in farm country, which has prospered immensely from trade with China, it is not acceptable in most corners to say anything ‘nice’ about China. The relationship between China and the U.S. has no rhyme so it is new history rather than history repeating itself. China is a rival not an enemy…at least unless we allow them no other choice.