The Peoples Liberation Army refers to the U.S. in their documents as the “Strong Enemy.” China is maneuvering to expand its reach and ability to control its strategic interests in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Remember Guadalcanal during WWII in the Solomon Islands northeast of Australia? The Japanese had an airbase there and a major base at Rabaul through which they tried to extend leverage controlling supply-lines via sea-lanes to Australia from the U.S. 7,100 American Marines were killed with another 7,789+ wounded taking that island from the Japanese.

The strategic location of the Solomon Islands, which makes it important, has not changed for the region since WWII. China is thinking and acting very strategically. It is attempting to purchase a base in the Solomons which caught the concern and ire of Australians, Japan and the U.S. The Solomon Islands are poor and have been ignored by other economic powers in the region so had become open to entreaties from China for economic aid. Probably cannot blame them. If China can obtain bases there northeast of Australia, it would give them leverage to control alternative trade routes for Japan around the continent of Australia from the Suez and Persian Gulf if the current route through the strait of Malacca is blocked. China is a long way from accomplishing these objectives, but their intent is crystal clear.

China has a huge navy defined as the number of ships in their fleet, but most are of a coastal variety, more like our Coast Guard, lacking the ability to project either naval or airpower far from home bases on the mainland.

China is in the process of building a blue water navy that could operate beyond the re-supply and basing needs provided from the mainland to extend its reach beyond the first island chain. They have two jump launch carriers that can launch light aircraft. They have a third carrier under construction, appropriately named the Fujian, after the province closest to Taiwan. While this carrier was meant to reach beyond the first island chain, it is not nuclear powered which means that it requires re-fueling every four to six days. One of the ways they look to extend the reach of their navy is to obtain bases in Sri Lanka and in the Solomons northeast of Australia. The base in Sri Lanka, which they intended to secure by a long-term lease and or foreclosure on debt financing to that island, is in doubt after political upheaval on that island and opposition from India. If acquired, it could give them leverage over what shipping can use the Malacca Strait such as oil transiting from the Mideast to China, Japan and South Korea. They could protect their own oil supply lines while cutting off oil to Japan and South Korea. India, by its location, is strategically positioned with minimal use of naval power to interdict that shipping route, a fact not lost on the Chinese.

One problem for China is that it really has no allies. No one trusts them and Chinese geopolitical power has been extended through economic pressure on neighbors, which has endeared no one to them.

A Chinese base in the Solomons could give them a strategic position to interdict any shipping that circumvents waters going around Australia heading to Japan and South Korea through the second island chain. Australia expressed alarm as all of its trade routes could be threatened.

Japan has the world’s second most powerful navy to ours and it is blue water. Japan’s navy could protect its shipping lanes if forced to take an alternative shipping route around Australia, but a Chinese base in the Solomons could complicate that ability. I doubt that Japan, the U.S. or Australia would allow it. China’s naval and air reach would be challenged by Japan. Japan has several small but effective carriers capable of launching F-35 aircraft as well as bases on Japanese islands that extend down toward Taiwan as part of the first island chain. The Japanese navy is more powerful than China’s. And then there is the “Strong Enemy” with allies and bases strategically located to not only provide assistance to Taiwan, but with partnerships to command all that happens outside the first island chain while not conceding to China control of the seas inside it. Taking Taiwan to cement its control of the first island chain would be a stepping stone to challenging control of the second island chain.

The U.S. Navy has issues. The Ukraine war has revealed that many traditional weapons systems have become obsolete, such as trenches and tanks. Drones, satellites and long-range artillery have tipped the advantages in that war. While there has been little naval activity in the Ukraine war, Ukraine sunk Russian ships with missiles despite having little/no navy. Taiwan has similar capability. The extension of power with a blue water navy also exposes new weaknesses. Next technology U.S. aircraft are shorter range than the old ones used in “Top Gun.” That means that mid-air refueling and forward bases needed to sustain flight operations increase vulnerabilities. China has long range missiles that can threaten U.S. carriers even when in the second island chain. That is a reason why the USS Theodore Roosevelt went into port last year to undergo a technical overhaul of its defensive capabilities to give it a fighting chance in a hot war with China.

In a conventional war between U.S. and Russian military forces, the Russians are completely and utterly outclassed. That gives some pause at it could mean that escalation could reach a nuclear footing as Russian conventional forces are crushed. The Chinese see this which will give it pause about challenging “the Strong Enemy”. That is another reason why Xi Jinping is so sensitive about a NATO-like entity of the U.S. and allies forming to confront China.