-Farm News photo by Karen Schwaller
Chip Flory, left, host of nationally syndicated "Agri-Talk," speaks with one of the attendees at the Spencer stop on the Pro-Farmer Crop Tour.

SPENCER — National corn yields across the corn belt were down from USDA’s Aug. 1 predictions, according to findings from the 2022 Pro-Farmer Crop Tour.

The national corn yield was estimated by Pro-Farmer to be 168.1 bushels per acre (bu/a), well under USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate of 175.4 bu/a. The national corn supply was estimated by USDA to be 14.4 billion bushels, with Pro-Farmer’s findings estimating it at 13.759 billion bushels.

National soybean yields were nearly unchanged, with the USDA coming out on Aug. 1 with a 51.8 bu/a estimate, and Pro-Farmer estimating the soybean yield at 51.7 bu/a. The national soybean crop was estimated on Aug. 1 by USDA to be 4.53 billion bushels, with Pro-

Farmer estimating it to be nearly the same at 4.535 billion bushels.

Brian Grete, editor of Pro-Farmer Magazine, said the 2022 crop suffered from the stress of too much heat and dryness.

“It really showed up in the grain length. You can’t get a whole lot of bang out of the crop if you have too much heat and moisture stress combined, and at the same time,” he said.

Chip Flory, host of nationally syndicated “Agri-Talk,” said it would surprise some to take half a million bushels off of the corn crop estimate that USDA submitted on Aug. 1.

“I think there was an expectation that the western corn belt lost bushels from Aug. 1 to the final, but there was also some hope that the eastern belt would hold onto or add some bushels, but we didn’t see that,” he said.

Grete said soybean acres were increased by 500,000, with no acreage adjustment for corn, so he said that comes into play in the production number. He said soybean moisture ratings (minus Nebraska and South Dakota) are high, indicating they could finish strong in other areas of the crop tour if they have a good September.

Flory said the soybean crop in southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska looks “tough.”

“There are areas out there that have already given it up,” he said, adding that the soybean crop in Iowa’s western area looks good, and could be prolific if it receives timely rains in September.

Pro-Farmer found Illinois and Iowa to top the list for potential corn yields at 198 bu/a, with the USDA estimating 205 bu/a in Iowa. Iowa came in second in predicted soybean yields at 60 bu/a, compared to USDA’s estimate of 58 bu/a. Illinois’ USDA corn estimate came in at 203 bu/a, with the soybean estimate coming in at 64 bu/a, with USDA predicting 66 bu/a.

Eastern South Dakota farmers, coming in last on the yield estimate maps, are expecting lower yields with drought and moisture issues, with Pro-Farmer predicting a yield of 122 bu/a on corn, 25 bushels off from USDA’s predictions, and a 41 bu/acre prediction for South Dakota soybeans, down 2 bushels from USDA’s estimates.

Grete said they saw some “good corn” on the tour, but overall the crop didn’t have the “wow factor.” He said Iowa’s corn crop demonstrates “extreme variability.”

“There are areas in the eastern portion of the state in Northeast Iowa that will have some monster yields, but then we have the western tier of crop districts that are hurt — South Central is hurt, Southeastern is hurt to a degree, and even Central Iowa is hurt to some extent.

There are more areas in the state that are hurt than are going to see monster yields,” he said.

Flory added, “We’re talking about the supply side of the balance sheet. If these estimates are right for soybeans, not a lot of change from USDA estimates, but on the corn side, we’re taking (a lot off) of USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate — it’s a big change to the supply side of the balance sheet, and I don’t see a lot of places where they can make adjustments on the demand side.”

Grete said of the corn findings on the tour overall, the ear counts are fine, but the grain length is what is driving the decline in estimates.

SPENCER STOP

Pro-Farmer Iowa findings for Aug. 24 came in as follows:

CORN: Northwest Iowa: 181.12 bu/a, down 1.5 percent; West Central Iowa: 180.8 bu/a, down 10.1 percent; Southwest Iowa: 173.76, down 9.8 percent.

SOYBEANS: Northwest Iowa: 1,089.74 pods in a 3-by-3-foot area, unchanged from last year; West Central Iowa: 1,258.94 pods in a 3-by-3-foot area, up 2.8 percent from 2021; and Southwest Iowa: 1,223.85 pods in a 3-by-3-foot area, down 10.5 percent.

The head scout for the western leg of the tour stopping in Spencer said Iowa crops look much better than South Dakota and Nebraska crops. Overall on his route from Missouri Valley to Minnesota he said the Iowa crop looks “solid.” Even though overall findings there were 9 percent down on corn and 11 percent down on beans, he said the quality was good and corn was denting.

The scout working along U.S. 71 from Nebraska through Atlantic, Iowa said the word of the day was “refreshing.” Still, he said the average corn estimates were down 30 bu/a in southwest Iowa, and soybeans along his route could still be in the running if they receive timely rains in September.

The Northwest Iowa (District 1) route went from Sioux City to Sanborn to Spencer, and showed variability in corn yields from 111 bu/a to 230 bu/a. The scout said they saw some gooseneck, and some hail damage along Iowa Highway 3, along with a “terrible stand” of corn.

“District 1 corn average is 186 bu/a, and we pulled 174 bu/a,” he said.

He said of soybeans in Northwest Iowa that they pulled many two-bean pods, and not many three-beans pods.

“But even though our pod counts themselves were higher this year, I don’t think that will correspond with yield,” he said.

Crop tour findings overall on the (Aug. 24) route found poor pollination issues in West Central Iowa, small ear sizes in Nebraska, where they had been chopping for two weeks; a very dry stretch from northern Buena Vista County to southern Clay County, with dryness seen throughout much of the Corn Belt; spider mites and rootworm beetles in corn in Iowa; severe lodging in two fields in Plymouth County, and tip-back in Illinois from too much heat.

“Our brothers to the west have problems,” said one scout of farmers in Nebraska and South Dakota. “There are corn fields in Nebraska where there are no ears in the test spot. Northeast Iowa has the golden star.”

2025 DROUGHT

Flory said weather conditions in China and Europe are dry, and that the 89-year recurring weather pattern shows the Corn Belt due for a severe drought in 2025, with weather volatility preceding it for five or six years.

“It is happening. If we’re going to continue to see this volatile weather leading up to a big drought in 2025, we better put something in the bin starting as soon as we can,” Flory said, adding that the worldwide stocks situation compared to the demand shows that producers can’t be comfortable with 250 million bushels of beans and 1.5 billion bushels of corn.

“We need to build on that as we get to 2025,” Flory said. “If we don’t, we could get into a situation that could be really desperate.”

He encouraged producers to work hard to market intelligently, to know that every bushel matters on this corn crop in comparison to the global demand predictions, and to watch the corn basis and keep an eye on speculative money flow to know when to sell grain.