Earlier in 2022, pork producers saw considerably strong prices emerge, but there’s been some slippage since then. Still, prices are historically higher and giving farmers hope.

“Looking at December lean hog futures, right now they’re close to $80/cwt. They’re not quite as good as they were a couple months ago when they went into the $90s/cwt for a few days. Even though prices have come down from those lofty numbers in recent weeks, producers are still in pretty good shape for pricing,” said Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension agriculture market specialist.

Numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture have shown some tightening up for herd size, but the industry is expected to slowly grow as producers roll into 2023.

Exports are weak right now, too, Hart noted, which has been a rough spot in the market.

“Domestic demand has held up pretty good. Where we’ve taken the hit is on the export side and a lot of that is the boomerang effect from China. We saw them come in really hard in 2020 and early 2021, but since then they’ve backed off fairly significantly,” Hart said. “We haven’t had enough growth from other markets to offset those losses.”

Mexico and South Korea’s imports of U.S. pork are up a bit, but with every other country, “we’re treading water,” Hart said.

“That’s really put the strain on the export business,” he noted.

While feed costs are looking good, Hart said he advises producers to look at where their margin sits.

“If you’re in a favorable spot, lock those in. If not, maybe take a risk and see if we continue to see these markets pull back a bit, especially on the feed side,” Hart said. “The biggest challenge is the impact of the drought and how it’s limiting supplies and pushing those feed costs higher. But on the other hand, we have worries about the recession and inflation. So we’re hoping to see those feed costs pressed down.”

Pat McGonegle, chief executive officer of the Iowa Pork Producers Association, echoed that producers are seeing “pretty good” market prices right now, but costs are also high.

“Profitability is OK, but not great. In some cases, we have producers who aren’t even making any money. I think the pork market is moving right along and during National Pork Month, we have opportunities for consumers to get good value buys for their money. I know that’s more and more important, particularly as the economy has evolved,” McGonegle said.