Ready …. set … soon it will be GO! … for the Ukraine offensive. The West is providing Ukraine with an enormous amount of new war material, including a huge number of more advanced tanks, other combat vehicles and necessary supplies such as ammo, missiles, and countless other tools of war.

All of this has required a period of training that even when accelerated takes a while to get soldiers up to speed so they can effectively use what is being given them. They have been motivated fast learners. Deliveries of so many varied types of this new equipment will have many logistical hurdles in maintaining it. Logistics have also caused delays in the delivery of all this new equipment. They are essentially creating a new army, not too much less than from scratch. That is not a simple undertaking. Some things like the M1A1 tanks will not get there in time for a spring offensive. Some have grown impatient waiting, but it will take the time that it takes.

Russia’s winter offensive has bogged down in Bakhmut. Russia doesn’t have the depth of material or manpower to beat a well-prepared competently managed enemy nor allies willing or able to aid them to the degree that the West has Ukraine. North Korea, Belarus and Iran are no equal to our Western allies in NATO. Russia’s economy is in decline and it lacks the demographic human resources with which to train and arm any great expansion of its forces.

That is why the Wagner Group gleaned tens of thousands of “volunteers” from Russian prisons, trading freedom for six months service if they survive. Additional conscription will have limited success and further harm their economy. The manpower drain also impacts Ukraine with its ag sector bemoaning the lack of men who have left farms for the front lines.

There is an outspoken segment of the MAGA crowd that has taken issue with U.S. support for the war in Ukraine … even U.S. involvement in NATO. Their statements taken at face value would appear to be the best hope that Putin has to shutting off the pressure being put on him. There are constant cheap shots at U.S. Ukraine policy that makes me question whose side that these people are on. I guess because they think that anything that harms Biden is a good thing even if it helps Putin. This bothers me every bit as much as Biden’s incompetent exit from Afghanistan. This may be the chance of a lifetime to bring Russia to heal. The Wall Street Journal says that, “The U.S., the world’s biggest military spender last year, sent $19.9 billion worth of weaponry to Ukraine last year, or about 2.3% of its total military spending.” That is a dirt-cheap investment for what it may return us. It is particularly advantageous that China is in no position to help Russia without blowing up their economy. Settling with Russia will then mean that the West can focus the attention on China that it deserves. Ukraine will have enormous stakes riding on the next U.S. election, so the clock is potentially ticking for them to achieve their objectives in the war.

Where will Ukraine strike in their offensive? They will want to keep everyone guessing. Most have put their money on a drive to retake Mariupol on the Sea of Azov separating Russian-held territory into two parts while severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.

That done, they can turn and flank the Russia forces in southern Ukraine without any river in front to block them. Russia took out the bridges when they retreated behind the Dnieper River. With that river being a barrier that is why most think that Ukraine would do an end run by driving to the coast, therein getting around it.

However, reports are that Ukraine forces have recently established bridgeheads on the east side of the river. This could be a diversion or preparation for the offensive. If they hold Russian forces in place in the west, then use their new offensive power on Russian forces in the southern Kherson region, it would give them a shot at even taking Crimea itself. If they can recover all of this territory, I doubt they would need Putin’s permission to maintain the Black Sea shipping corridor. It is an aggressive objective, but the Ukraine’s army is all of scrappy while Russia’s has been consistently crappy. Russia squandered their elite troops and they do not resemble the Red Army when Russia was in the role that Ukraine is in today fighting for their motherland.

The objective for the Ukraine offensive would be to take back all of its territory stolen by Russia in 2014. I would be shocked if that could be accomplished in one single massive assault on Russian forces. The Russian army has had some time to prepare for what Ukraine will throw at them. I am skeptical that they will have used that time productively.

NATO is rebuilding too after decades of neglect. The addition of Finland and Sweden will carry huge weight strengthening NATO while Germany has finally begun to modernize its decrepit military, although it is painful watching them flounder doing it. If Ukraine can eject Russian forces from their territory, then NATO can contemplate membership for Ukraine. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia promised to respect Ukraine borders and sovereignty if they surrendered their nukes. Russia lied and will not be taken at their word while Putin is still in charge in Russia. When there is an agreement, it will be enforced by NATO.

The plan for the offensive suggested might also be what would be expected, and Ukraine has been good at doing the unexpected to take the initiative. The Russian army has never had the initiative in this war a few days after starting it. The Ukraine military has acquired a stellar reputation that will be hard to live up to. Let expectations get out of control and it will be hard to restore momentum if not seized.

The Ukraine offensive has to succeed or the narrative would quickly devolve into the time and place for a negotiated settlement. Right now, I think that all that we can be sure of is that something is coming, and the other shoe will soon drop.