Some people think that we know what is going on in Russia in their internal power struggle. but the only thing that I am very sure of is that we don’t.

I think what was amazing is that it took days until we heard anything in public from Putin. That followed a recording from his antagonist, Prigozhin. The battle is between the defense minister, chief Russian general, who were in the room with Putin, and Prigozhin.

The Wagner drive to Moscow was aborted and Prigozhin supposedly goes into exile in Belarus. His plane reportedly landed there. I doubt anyone actually knows where he is or where he is going next. He had allies within the Russian military, so some kind of purge will follow.

They sent Napoleon to exile a couple times and he did not stay there. Prigozhin doesn’t seem the type to retire on a lake and live happily ever after. He will always be a threat to Putin’s power, having jumped that line.

The tone of Putin’s speech was that he was not just going to let this go. Putin will need to make the fate of Prigozhin a cautionary tale for others who would challenge the King. This is a power struggle between the heads of the Russian military and Wagner. Did Prigozhin back down or just redeploy? It was also very personal. Wagner troops were reportedly invited to join their commander in Belarus. Will they comply with demands to surrender their heavy equipment to the regular army? The Kremlin was reportedly paying Prigozhin $2 billion a year to support Wagner … plus whatever they could steal. Rank and file Wagner troops would get a pay cut. What happens to the ones recruited from Russian prisons?

All of the details are in a state of flux. While Putin supposedly agreed to allow Wagner troops to be incorporated back into the Russian army, many of Wagner leadership came disgruntled from the Russian army. Hard to see them welcomed back or willing to go. Many of them will just disappear or form new mercenary units. There were some Russian regular army units that reportedly allied with Wagner during the short insurrection. It has to be total chaos within the Russian military with scores to be settled and loyalties to get sorted out. This would be the last thing that an army would need when in the middle of a war.

The average Russian soldier, if informed at all about what is taking place, would have to ask themselves what the hell they are doing there. Unit cohesion could break down before the Ukrainians ever get to them. Why would they die for these fools?

Ukraine should practice some restraint until it is clearer the direction of things. Nothing could bring Russians back together more than a fight for immediate survival, although panic would be useful. Given that Wagner took control of the Russian headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, the Russian army command and control has to have been disrupted.

Ukraine reportedly put together 12 new Brigades, armed them with new western weapons and trained up their troops for their offensive. At last count, just three of the Brigades had engaged with nine waiting in reserve. They are probing, looking for opportunities. Ukraine took out a strategic bridge used by the Russians to resupply Crimea last week. Ukraine would like to drive through Russian held territory to the Sea of Azov cutting off the land route to Crimea, essentially isolating it from Russian re-supply. They would likely have to absorb a counter-punch if the Russian army has any left, but at some point, the Russians would have to abandon Crimea … and oh, what an embarrassment to Putin would that be!

Russian internal security forces had things to contend with other than Ukraine last week. We can cheer the chaos, but both Putin and Prigozhin are evil war criminals and neither represents a good outcome as a winner. The best description that I heard of them was “two scorpions fighting in a bottle.” Both killing each other would be a good outcome but there are always more scorpions to take their place. Russia has never had a George Washington, and if they did the Russians would shoot him.

Prigozhin reportedly ran the Russian cyber campaign to disrupt the 2016 election. I guess that occurred in his spare time as his mercenaries raped and pillaged on at least three continents when hired out by Moscow.

The coalescence of the western world democracies to confront Russia has exceeded all expectations. Many assumptions about western weaknesses were proven false. Through the proxy war in Ukraine, it has cost us something like 5% of our military budget to destroy 50% of Russia’s. That is a windfall. Having the western powers come together with economic sanctions on Russia has forced Beijing to reassess its place and objectives in the world. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will bleed into future U.S./Chinese relations. There was a huge peace dividend to the world that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and there would be another if Russia is denuded of its strategic influence. I cannot imagine that Russians want to become a bigger North Korea protected by an umbrella of nukes, but then again, I do not think of intimidation as a positive attribute. They live off of it, as their primary directive is, “intimidate and conquer.” The Russian people have not been meek conscripts to their national identity. I make no excuse for them.

Little economic impact occurred from the brief insurrection other than the ruble weakened. That does make their wheat cheaper. I guess their oil is cheaper too, except it is not sold in dollars. Russia could give a rip about OPEC+ quotas. They are processing all the oil they can to try to hold their social structure together while financing Putin’s war. They shoot $million missiles every day at Kiev that get knocked down by the air defense that they do not have the resources to replace. Economic sanctions are slowly debilitating and Putin has no answer for it. Crude oil prices are now low enough that the Biden administration should get after refilling our Strategic Petroleum Reserve.