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Chad Hart, an agriculture economist with Iowa State University Extension, noted that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s recent crop report pulled down this year's soybean yields.

Thanks to recent heat suppressing pod filling at a time when rain was needed for the soybean crop, the bean market has seen prices rise a bit.

Chad Hart, an agriculture economist with Iowa State University Extension, noted that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s recent crop report pulled down soybean yields.

“It’ll be a bit smaller than last year’s crop, around 250 million bushels smaller than in 2021. We’ve also seen demand sort of shrink to match, which has been reflected in market prices,” Hart said. “It’s one of those deals where the market dynamics are changing and we’re relying a little bit more on domestic demand, through soybean crush. It’s being driven partially by the push for renewable energy, especially renewable diesel.”

Brazil’s crop continues to look good, Hart said, plus they grow at least two crops per year, although they’re still dealing with weather issues.

“We do expect Argentina to have a better crop this year than the past year. They got walloped by the drought last year, but we think they’ll bounce back,” Hart said. “We’re seeing a little more advanced export sales, but we’re not quite back to where we’d like to be. We’re at least approaching our five-year average and it’s encouraging to see some additional growth in the market.”

Hart said he’s eyeing Mexico, which is a country not typically considered a big soybean market.

“Mexico is up a little bit, 12 percent, and we’re seeing some additional growth there. If we can continue that trend, I think that’s one key for the soybean market to expand,” he said. “We have to expand those opportunities so we’re less reliant on China.”

Iowa Farm Bureau’s Chris Pudenz, economics and research manager, noted that overall soybean acres are down substantially from last year, which first popped up in the June USDA report. The August WASDE report dropped the August soybean yield modestly, too.

“This all was the primary driver in the 30-cent per bushel increase,” Pudenz said. “The soybean crop condition nationally rebounded quite a bit. The good-to-excellent rating was between 50 and 55 percent nationally and now is 58 percent, just above last year’s estimate last year at this time nationally.

“Yields could be shaping up similar to what we saw last year. But in Iowa, the story is a little different.”

The state’s crop condition rebounded in the first half of August, but fell off sharply with a subsequent heat wave. The hot temps aren’t helping crop conditions across the Corn Belt.

“The late August heat wave might have taken off five bushels per acre for beans in Iowa, which is 10 percent of the yield,” Pudenz said. “Nationally, our good-to-excellent condition rating looks pretty similar to what it did last year, just slightly better.”

Pudenz added that he recently attended a U.S. Soybean Export Council meeting in New York. He said there was quite a bit of excitement shared regarding renewable soy biodiesel and especially aviation fuel.

“There’s a lot of new U.S. soybean crush capacity at various stages of development. The trade flow is already shifting in which potentially every drop of soybean oil from U.S. crush remains statewide for renewable diesel production. Then the U.S. becomes a major force in the export of U.S. soybean meal nationally,” Pudenz said. “There’s been a lot of discussion about if we crush all these soybeans and we use the oil for renewable diesel, where does all the meal go. They’re putting a lot of effort into developing markets for that meal.”

Grant Kimberley, senior director of market development for the Iowa Soybean Association, said the soybean market seems to want to see a potential yield decline due to the unfavorable weather its endured recently.

“It looks like new crop soybean exports are starting to tick up a little bit. I was in China last month, and you can tell their economy is not completely back to what it once was due to COVID issues they had. I think demand will keep them coming back. We also have good demand from other parts of the world,” Kimberley said. “People are still adding more meat to their diet, which is positive long-term for livestock production.”

While in China with a grower delegation, Kimberley said buyers seemed quite happy to see them.

“There’s still optimism that things will be positive in that relationship. Dialog is important, as well as building up that customer preference” he said. “We’ll probably see several large buyer delegations from around the world come visit during harvest time. Then we’ll start getting inquiries and make plans to host different buyer groups as well.”

Because he’s been driving around the state for grower meetings recently, Kimberley said he’s seen quite a range of crop conditions.

“You can tell that some crops look fine, but a lot are still looking pretty rough this time of year,” he said. “The last few weeks of hot weather have hurt the bean crop and there isn’t any major rain in sight. We’re about out of time.”

Magic Beans: 5 Ways Iowa Soybeans Make Life Better

There are few crops more versatile than soybeans, which are used in:

1. Soy foods, from soy protein power bars to heart-healthy soybean oil.

2. Soy-based crayons, which are non-toxic and safer for children.

3. Candles made with soybean oil, which burn cleaner.

4. Soy ingredients for feed, which provide a protein-powered boost for farm animals.

5. Soy ink, which has been used since the 1980s. Today, about one-third of America’s newspaper printers use soy ink, according to the American Soybean Association.

Soybeans drive sustainable fuel solutions

Soybeans can be processed into biodiesel, a cleaner-burning, renewable alternative to regular diesel. Soy-based biodiesel powers a range of vehicles, from semi-trucks to tractors.

“Iowa is the No. 1 producer of biodiesel America,” said Grant Kimberley, executive director of the Iowa Biodiesel Board (IBB) and senior director of market development for the Iowa Soybean Association.

Biodiesel made with soybean oil can help reduce greenhouse gases by up to 86%, compared to regular diesel, according to IBB. Soy biodiesel also reduces smog and makes our air healthier to breathe.