Pork production numbers for 2023 have been bumped up by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, due to a higher-than-expected pace of slaughter and upward revisions to the first-half 2023 pig crop.

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the hog price forecast for 2023 was lowered from last month to $59.70/centi-weight (cwt.) due to current prices and larger hog supplies.

The 2024 forecast also was lowered as larger supplies of hogs are expected to pressure prices.

The USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report released Sept. 28 indicated a more rapid rate of growth in pigs per litter than previously anticipated.

“Productivity is amazing here in the U.S., which sounds like a good thing. Even though the industry is trying to slow down by cutting the breeding herd, we’ve been reducing the number of animals out there, but we keep more than replacing them with more surviving pigs per litter,” said Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension agriculture economist.

A larger herd size means more product, which has led to some of the weaker prices for pork when compared to the other meats.

“Pork’s struggling in terms of price, but the positive side is that when we’re looking at exports, we continue to see exports running well ahead of where they were last year right now, up 10 to 11 percent compared to last year at this time,” Hart said. “The more stagnant prices have allowed us to gain some additional footholds in the export markets and the USDA continues to expect that to grow.”

The biggest growth in export markets seems to be in smaller markets, Hart pointed out.

“Once you get out of the top five or six markets, the growth can be seen in Japan, which is up 12 percent, Korea 21 percent, and Canada 31 percent. So we have some real growth there,” Hart said. “We’re seeing a good-sized jump in Australia, too. Other places like Southeast Asia, Malaysia, we’ve had some real growth there this year. Same with New Zealand, the Philippines and Vietnam. So we’re seeing growth in markets that we don’t always think of.”

The lower grain prices of 2023 have eased feed costs for livestock producers, but grain prices are expected to rise as 2023 wraps up, moving into 2024. Because of that, Hart recommended growers lock in their feed now and take advantage of those lower prices.

“Be patient. I wouldn’t lock in pork sales now if you don’t have to. We’re looking at April, May, June as good prices on the board to take advantage of,” he said, “so if you can hold out, wait. But lock in those feed prices.”