Ethanol’s future may be in aviation
Sauer: Business could go to Brazil if U.S. carbon index numbers don’t subside
DES MOINES — A Boeing 747 has four main fuel tanks in the wings, a tail plane tank, a center wing tank, and reserve fuel tanks in the outer wing section. When all the tanks are filled, the maximum fuel capacity of that 747 is 57,284 gallons.
Ryan Sauer, vice president of market development for the Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA), would like to see Iowa’s corn producers profit from the ever-growing world demand for travel by air.
“The United States government issued what they call a ‘Grand Challenge’ to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by the year 2030,” said Sauer, who grew up on a grain and livestock farm in eastern Iowa. “By the year 2050, they want 35 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel. To make a gallon of SAF, it takes 1.6 gallons of ethanol; so if all SAF came from corn ethanol, it could represent as much as 20 billion bushels of new corn demand.
“Last year, the U.S. produced 15 million gallons; meaning we must go from 15 million to 3 billion, so there are a lot of conversations on how ethanol can play a key role in closing that gap. It is the most available feedstock out there today that can make SAF.”
After his time in the Army, Sauer attended Iowa State University for his undergraduate work and then earned a Master of Business Administration degree from the University of Iowa. He has five years of experience on the Cargill Soy Crush team, 13 years in the ethanol industry, and three years with Casey’s on their fuel procurement team. At ICGA, his role is market development, working to expand uses for corn, both in the U.S. and internationally.
Sauer acknowledges that there are other potential players with a goal in contributing to SAF.
“Soybean oil can also be made into SAF,” said Sauer. “It’s also a cost-effective way to make SAF. However, a lot of the soybean oil is going to make renewable diesel. That is what is driving the soy crush expansion in the U.S. The renewable diesel market build-out could be as high as 6 billion gallons. So, again, ethanol is the most readily available feedstock with proven technology to produce sustainable aviation fuel.
“The challenge is the ethanol industry must get its carbon score lower to qualify for the incentives currently offered under the Inflation Reduction Act. Most ethanol plants today have a carbon score around 60 g Greenhouse Gases (GHG)/MJ. A 50% reduction in GHG emissions as compared to jet fuel is needed to qualify, and the incentive increases for each point below that. Projects like C02 capture cut in half the carbon score of an ethanol plant. There are other things farmers can do, such as climate-smart farming practices and plants can use more sustainable sources of energy. All this combined gets ethanol to a carbon score at or near a net zero, which will make U.S. ethanol extremely competitive into SAF markets across the globe.”
Sauer notes that we currently have the infrastructure to produce about 17.7 billion gallons of ethanol in the United States. Fuel blended into the gasoline supply equals about 14 billion gallons, and the U.S. exports 1.5 billion gallons.
“We have room to produce more ethanol from the existing plants and could see a scenario where we would need to expand production to meet new demand. This means more corn to grind, which is important because the corn supply-demand outlook shows 2.1 billion bushels of corn that will set in a grain bin at the end of this crop year, with projections for next year that number to grow as high as 3 billion bushels.
“The American farmer continues to do what he or she does best, which is grow a lot of corn, so it’s imperative we continue to find new demand. It will make the difference between low-priced corn and a price where farmers can be profitable.”
Sauer believes ICGA’s role is to work with the airlines to educate them about agriculture’s role to help meet their decarbonization goals. ICGA has met with most of the major airlines and companies wanting to produce SAF to share this message and ensure they understand ethanol is a readily available feedstock, and that farmers are growing corn safely, responsibly, and sustainably.