When the headline surfaced, “Officials Confirm HPAI Dairy Infections,” a thread began to unravel that we have not seen the end of yet. North America appears to be awash in bird flu virus as the wild bird migration traverses the continent.

Biologists were concerned that at some point the virus would jump species to animals other than poultry.

Finally, it happened when dairy cows in Texas and Kansas were confirmed to have been infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus. That gave this story some new legs.

The cows got sick but there was no associated mortality. Initially observers discounted the risk saying that milk from unhealthy cows is discarded while milk consumed by the public is pasteurized and there was no way the virus would be passed along through the food chain. USDA gave its seal of approval that “there was no impact on human health.” They did also offer the caveat that this was “a rapidly evolving situation.”

HPAI was also found in a Minnesota goat. Then again not enough research has been done to know anything for sure yet with high confidence. Cows also tend to be more exposed outdoors. The load of virus in the natural environment is so heavy as to result in the depopulation of millions of infected chickens and turkeys that were housed in confinement. The U.S.’s largest egg producer Cal-Maine Foods culled 1.6 million hens and 337,000 pullets after a facility in Texas tested positive for HPAI. They say that no farm is immune to HPAI despite robust biosecurity programs. USDA also stated initially that their National Veterinary Services Laboratories had not discovered any strain of the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans. Not then, but as we would find out later that transmission to humans, while remote, is possible.

A subsequent headline read, “Dairy HPAI Cases Now in 5 States.” It was not a one or two-off event. Additional cases have been confirmed in Michigan, Idaho and New Mexico, which covers a great expanse of the U.S. in territory. More states are likely to fill in like empty blanks. Herds with confirmed cases are now quarantined. The cows in Idaho had been recently imported from another state from a herd later found to be affected so there was reason to surmise that the transmission was from cow to cow in this instance and was not a local origin infection. Why would dairies contract the virus and not cattle in feedlots?

HPAI transmission from birds to cows jumps species but then came the next headline, “First human case of Avian Flu in Texas raises alarm.” That would be species to species to species. Actually, the headline was not accurate. This was the first case in Texas, but a person was confirmed to have contracted bird flu in Colorado in 2022 so this would be the second instance. The lapse would suggest low pathogen virulence and extremely isolated instances of transmission. Swine are more like humans than cattle so it begs yet another question of it being a matter of time before hogs contract HPAI? Pork industry leaders have been huddling in meetings trying to game out the possible risks and responses. What are the barriers to transmission and where does it stop? Questions just multiply and will only be answered by research, observation and time. Will there be human-to-human transmission? This was deemed serous enough by officials that the White House was reportedly briefed on it.

Epidemiologists say that they do not yet have an understanding “whether the virus is changing in ways that make it more adaptable to spread among humans.” What they do know with reasonable certainty is that this virus is not cooling off. It is spreading across species. Its spread is not limited to the U.S. so is a smoking gun of a developing global pandemic. The good news is that illness has been minor, lacking lethality in species other than those avian. I would expect that there would have been a lot of chances for poultry workers on infected farms to have contracted the virus and with only one such confirmed case, risk of such transmission appears extremely low. There is an irony that scientists actually see humans as a deeper sink for evolving viruses where there is more risk of people passing them on to other species than for humans to contract them from other species.

What we are going to need here is some time to sort out the details to where they become benign and where they matter. Facts need to outweigh uncertainty. As long as it can be confirmed that there is no risk to the food supply chain or indirect human health the storyline alarm will fade. Chickens are highly susceptible to bird flu and KFC sells chicken everyday without consumer concerns because none is warranted. Same story with the egg industry. I believe that the HPAI dairy thing will get to the same place but it will take a little time yet to get the full story. The trade needs to gain confidence that we are near the end of the story and subsequent headlines. As for livestock producers, those that have taken LRP insurance can wait for events to unfold without the cold sweat of worry.

Fear is a powerful motivator, and I cannot blame retailers sitting on an inventory of expensive ribeyes to reconsider what meat they want to feature. Until and unless hogs become part of the story, featuring pork chops instead may be a defensive plan. To this point, health officials are preaching calm without identifying any serious human health risks to or from the food supply chain. We pray that it stays that way. However, public confidence in health officials is not what it once was for many Americans who have bought into the conspiracy theories. There is fodder here for more of that.