NEWS

*The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an order of default judgment and a permanent injunction against Darren Robinson, a former resident of Miami, Florida, and his firm The QYU Holdings Inc. (QYUHI), a Wyoming corporation with a purported principal place of business in Dallas, Texas. The order bans Robinson and QYUHI from trading in any CFTC-regulated markets and registering with the CFTC. It also requires them to pay, jointly and severally, $5,923,515.37 in restitution to defrauded victims and a $5,923,515.37 civil monetary penalty in connection with a fraudulent foreign currency (forex) scheme.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.09 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended April 25, were 48.3 million bushels, down from the previous week’s 65.4 million bushels and last year’s same-week exports of 59.8 million bushels, while being the lowest in seven weeks. Corn exports have averaged 55.9 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs. 44.6 million/week during the same period last year and still solidly above the roughly 33.6 million bushels/week that inspections will need to average over the final 18 weeks of the 2023-24 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.100 billion bushel export projection. Cumulative Export Inspections of 1.245 billion bushels are up 32% from last year’s 941 million, while the USDA’s export projection reflects their expectations for 2023-24 exports to be up 26% from last year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended April 26, rose to 987k barrels/day from 954k bpd the week prior and was a minor 1.1% above last year’s same-week production of 976k bpd after the previous two week’s production rates were 1.3% and 4.0% below year ago levels. The average production over the last three weeks of 975k bpd was slightly below the 1.017 mbpd average that would be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 5.400 billion bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate. U.S. ethanol stocks last week slipped to 25.488 million barrels from 25.733 million barrels the week prior, reflecting the fourth consecutive week of lower stocks. The year-over-year stocks comparison hit a 15-week high of plus-9.1% for the week relative to last year’s late April stocks.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, the USDA said U.S. corn planting is now 27% complete vs. 27% expected, 12% last week, 23% last year and 22% average. Iowa is 39% done with Minnesota 30% complete, Illinois 25% and Missouri 63%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As values approach weekly chart resistance, producers should look to establish minimum price levels with put options.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.26 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sale of 4.5 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export sales report, U.S. soybean exports last week were 9.2 mb but continuing to seasonally decline, falling from the previous week’s 16.3 mb and being below last year’s same-week exports of 15.0 mb while being the lowest of the 2023-24 marketing year so far. Over the last four weeks, soybean exports averaged 15.0 million bushels/week vs. 18.3 million during the same period last year, with cumulative inspections of 1.424 billion bushels maintaining an 18% deficit to last year’s 1.744 billion bushels vs. the USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 14.7% decline in exports for the year. In order to reach the USDA’s target, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 11.6 million bushels/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 9.7 million/week average from this point forward.

The Census crush report showed U.S. soybean crush in March was 203.7 million bushels, below average market expectations of 206 million bushels but was still up solidly from 193.9 million in February, 2.9% larger than year-ago March crush of 198 million bushels and was a new all-time record monthly crush in exceeding December 2023’s 204.3 million bushels. While the total monthly crush was a new record, the average daily crush rate of 6.57 million bushels was down from February 2024’s record 6.69 million/day average. Through the first seven months of the 2023-24 soybean marketing year, cumulative crush of 1.373 billion bushels is up 66 million bushels (5.0%) from last year’s 1.307 billion, leaving April-August crush needing to total 927 million bushels in order to reach the USDA’s 2.300 billion bushel annual crush estimate. USDA reported end March U.S. soybean oil stocks were 2.369 billion pounds, solidly above average market expectations of 2.294 billion pounds and above the entire range of market ideas of 2.200-2.350 billion pounds despite soybean crush for the month being “lower than expected.” March soybean oil stocks rose solidly from 2.146 billion pounds in February and were nearly identical to year-ago March stocks of 2.388 billion pounds, now having risen sharply by 868 million pounds over the last five months vs. the 294 million pound stocks build during the same period last year and being the largest total stocks rise during the November-March period in 37 years.

In the crop progress report, U.S. soybean seeding is 18% complete vs. 17% expected, 8% last week, 16% last year, and 10% on average. This is the fastest planting pace on record. Iowa is 25% seeded with Missouri 24% done, Illinois 26% and Minnesota 14% done.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As values approach weekly chart resistance, producers should look to establish minimum price levels with put options.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.00 3/4 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.01 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export sales report, U.S. wheat exports last week were 17.7 mb and little-changed from the previous week’s 16.5 mb while being slightly above last year’s same-week exports of 13.4 mb. Wheat export inspections of late have been quite consistent, averaging 19.0 million bushels/week over the last four weeks, solidly better than the roughly 11.9 million/week that inspections will need to average over the final five weeks of the 2023-24 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 710 million bushel export projection. Cumulative Export Inspections of 622 million bushels are now down only 7% from last year’s 671 million after being down 17% from last year at the end of February, in line with the USDA’s annual export projection, reflecting an estimated 6.5% decline in exports for the year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat seeding is 34% complete vs. 27% expected, 15% last week, 10% last year and 19% average. Minnesota is 48% done with South Dakota 62%, North Dakota 20% and Montana 76%.

Winter wheat conditions overall fell 1% to 49% good/excellent vs. 49% expected, 50% last week and 28% g/e last year. HRW conditions were mostly lower with Kansas down 5% to 31%, Oklahoma down 3% to 46% and Nebraska down 5% to 63% while SRW continues to improve with Illinois up 4% to 87%, Indiana up 1% to 78% and Ohio up 1% to 69%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As values approach weekly chart resistance, producers should look to establish minimum price levels with put options.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $1.80 lower while feeder cattle closed $2.02 lower.

Last week, the North saw light trade volumes at $186 live and $295 dressed, which is steady live and $1 firmer dressed compared to last week. Light test in the South at $184 live, which is mainly $2 higher than last week.

Last week, the Fed Cattle Exchange offered 774 head for sale and 0 head of cattle sold.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were down 3 pounds from last week at 919 pounds which is 27 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 22,500 MT for 2024, a marketing year high with exports of 14,600 MT.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have re-established window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential as values approach weekly resistance.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $3.45 lower. Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending April 27 has weights at 287.1 pounds vs. 287.0 pounds last week and 285.9 pounds last year. The weekly export sales report has net sales of 33,600 MT for 2024 with exports of 36,200 MT.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers need to establish hedges as values are at weekly chart resistance and commercials are hedging.