There is not a neighboring European or Asian country which has had any interaction with Russia and Russians in their long histories which has not come to regret ever trusting their motives, intentions or words.

Russians are about as close today to being the ruthless Vikings of old as exists. They will lie, cheat, steal, kill without aversion to getting whatever their want of the moment turns out to be. What they want is whatever others have that is convenient for them to take. Fins, Poles, Latvians, Georgians, or Ukrainians harbor no illusions over who and what Russians are. They are carrying forth a legacy of empire in which they see themselves as the high caste and the rest of the world their vassals. There is no such thing as an agreement, treaty, armistice or detente that is anything more than a chess move to allow Russia to seek out the next weakness in opponents to exploit.

To Russians, everyone is an opponent, every breath is taken toward conquest. The collapse of the Soviet Union represented the limits of extension of Russian hegemony in Eastern Europe. The Russian Federation under Putin is an attempt at a secondary rally in a bear market that will again give way to a resumption of what is the major trend of Russian political and economic implosion. The greater realization of their impending demise, the more desperation they will display. The more dangerous they will become.

Putin’s war on Ukraine has exposed Russian weakness. The ineffectiveness of the Russian military in Ukraine has stunned the Pentagon. Many analysts thought that Ukraine could only hold on for a few days after Russia invaded. The realization today is if Ukraine had been more properly aggressively supported, they could have already won. Part of the Russian strategy is to replace an absence of actual power with the illusion of power. They have been very successful at it, able to cower neighbors and challengers alike with a portrayal of bluster and propaganda. A Russian official was quoted as saying that he was wishing for a U.S. civil war. They have found strange allies in unlikely places. One would think that Marjorie Taylor Green checks in regularly with her Moscow Bureau advisor before she opens her mouth. A search of history revealed that there were over 25 members of the U.S. Congress ahead of WW II that had surrendered use of their Congressional franking privilege to send info to constituents that came directly from Nazi party headquarters in Berlin. Based upon last week’s House vote on aid to Ukraine, Putin has over 100 members of the U.S. Congress that have either been duped by his propaganda or are complicit in it. Thank God that one of them was not Speaker Johnson. The Speaker says that he listens to the Lord and it appears that he gave Johnson good guidance. Johnson just won the Profiles in Courage award for statesmanship for putting the country ahead of partisanship. I hope this starts a new trend in U.S. politics. I am proud to say that Iowa’s Congressional delegation, in its entirety, voted to aid Ukraine.

Having run out of ammunition, air defense systems and long-range artillery and missile systems all the while still waiting for F-16s, Ukraine was being worn down. I talk a lot about initiative and the pause in U.S. aid caused Ukraine to lose it. They have had an attrition of manpower and the lengthened war has brought fatigue if not in will, in exhaustion of energy of Ukraine’s population. The delay diluted its effectiveness but should allow them to stabilize the war, anticipating Russia again attacks this spring. There is no such thing as a settlement that could be gained through talks. Any so-called resolution would be just a pause in the hostilities to allow time to refit, reform, reorganize for the next phase of the war.

The war in Ukraine eliminated the illusion of Western Europe getting along in accommodation with Russia. Europe believes furthest and foremost in the respect of sovereign borders and did not believe that Russia would invade another country with annexation as they have attempted to do with portions of Ukraine.

Poland, the Baltic States and even the Fins know that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine that it is only a matter of time until the war comes to them. That is why Finland and Sweden joined NATO. The French have a formidable air force, navy and nuclear deterrent. They have a relatively small army. They are mobilizing to build their army with the objective of adding ground troops for potential deployment in Ukraine. Ukraine is short of ammunition, equipment and men. The West can more readily provide Ukraine ammunition and equipment but the manpower shortage could become acute requiring support. Ukraine says that it is solving it with another conscription. The initial wave of recruits that came early in the war dried up. It takes more assurances to motivate new volunteers. The West is providing new equipment and more advisors to train them.

EU countries are rearming, investing billions in their military industrial complex as the first step in increasing arms production. Russia is devoting most of its industrial output to the war effort and is finding difficulty sourcing everything needed, particularly the high-tech stuff they had been getting from the West.

China is hemmed in by the threat of inclusion in economic sanctions. Helping Russia could endanger their economy. North Korea has provided temporary assistance such as ammunition to Russia. They are trading Russia back stuff that Russia provided them. North Korea is no bastion of natural resources or technology. They are a weak ally to Russia. Iran and Russia have mutual interests and Iran has been providing Russia drones and missiles. The war in the Mideast changes the balance there so that Iran now needs its drones and missiles so it doesn’t have excess capacity to supply Russia. A drone shot down by Israel is one less that Ukraine has to shoot down.