NEWS

*With the House Agriculture Committee passage of the farm bill, attention shifts to the Senate. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley said Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow is working across the aisle to find compromise.

“I recently had a conversation with her, and she gave me a list of several things that I have an interest in that she hopes will bring me around.” However, Grassley doesn’t believe Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is ready to advance a farm bill. “He’s going to try to get things done that have support within the committees, but he doesn’t see a bipartisan agreement in agriculture and unless there’s a bipartisan agreement in ag there’s no point in putting it on the agenda.”

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.00 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced a sale of 4.3 million bushels of corn to Spain and 6.0 million bushels of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended May 30, were 54.1 million bushels, up from the previous week’s 44.5 mil lion bushels, above last year’s same-week exports of 47.5 million bushels and were the highest in six weeks. Corn exports over the last four weeks averaged 46.6 million bushels/week, slightly below last year’s 49.8 million/week average during the same period, resulting in cumulative export inspections of 1.486 billion bushels slipping to a 26.1% gain vs. last year’s 1.178 billion, the lowest year-over-year weekly percentage gain in 22 weeks.

In order to reach the USDA’s export projection, corn export inspections would need to average roughly 32.7 million bushels/week through the end of August, solidly better than last year’s 22.1 million/week average.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended May 31, ticked up to 1.072 million barrels/day from 1.068 mbpd the previous week and reflecting production 3.5% above year-ago same-week production of 1.036 mbpd. U.S. ethanol stocks last week ticked lower to 23.052 million barrels from 23.207 million barrels the previous week. After being a solid 91 million gallons above year-ago stocks just two weeks ago, this week’s data reflects stocks a minimal 4 million gallons above last year’s 964 million gallons but are still the second highest on record for late May in available data over the last 15 years.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, the first U.S. corn condition ratings of the season came in at 75% good/excellent, the sixth highest figure for this week in the last 17 years. This was well above the 70% rating that was expected and 64% g/e last year. This was also the highest rating in the last six years. Corn planting is now 91% complete vs. 92% expected, 83% last week, 95% last year and 89% average. This leaves roughly 8.3 million acres of corn to plant. Corn emergence is 74% vs. 73% on average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.28 lower. Last week, private exporters reported sale of 3.8 mb of soybeans to China.

U.S. soybean export inspections of 12.8 mb, up from the previous week’s 8.2 mb, above last year’s same-week exports and followed poor exports the previous two weeks of 8.2 million and 7.1 million bushels.

Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 11 million bushels/week, better than last year’s 7.7 million/week during the same period but slightly below the roughly 11.6 million bushels/week that will be needed during June-August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.7 billion bushel export projection, which would be modestly better than last year’s 10 mb/week average from the point forward. Cumulative soybean export inspections of 1.481 billion bushels are currently down 17.2% from last year’s 1.789 billion vs. the USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel export projection reflecting an expected 14.7% decline in exports for the year.

The crop progress report showed U.S. soybean planting moved to 78% complete vs. 80% expected, 68% last week, 89% last year and 73% average. This leaves approximately 19.1 million acres of soybeans to be planted based on the March 28 prospective plantings report. Emergence is 55% vs. 52% on average.

In the monthly Census crush report, the USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in April was 177.7 million bushels, slightly above wire service-reported average market expectations of 175.5 million, while confirming the notable decline in crush activity for the month initially indicated by NOPA-member crush data previously released in mid-May. Specifically, April crush was down strongly from 203.7 million bushels in March and 4.9% below year-ago April crush of 187 million bushels. USDA reported 2.098 billion pounds of soybean oil was produced in the U.S. in April, down notably from 2.406 billion in March and last year’s 2.236 billion pounds in April.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.53 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.46 lower. Last week, Egypt bought 180,000 of Romanian wheat, 120,000 mts of French wheat, 120,000 mts of Ukrainian wheat and 50,000 mts of Bulgarian wheat in their optional origin tender.

U.S. wheat export inspections, in the last full week of the 2023-24 marketing year were 15.3 mb, but above last year’s same-week exports of 11.2 mb. Cumulative export inspections of 687 million bushels are down 5.5% from last year’s 728 million, in line with the USDA’s export projection reflecting an expected 5.1% decline for the year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, winter wheat conditions rose 1% to 49% good/excellent vs. 48% expected, 48% last week and 36% g/e last year. HRW conditions were unchanged while SRW conditions ticked higher. Eighty-three percent of the crop is headed, ahead of the average pace of 78%. Winter wheat harvest is 6% complete vs. 3% expected, 3% last year and 3% on average. The first spring wheat condition ratings of the season came in at 74% good/excellent vs. 69% expected, 64% g/e last year and were the highest in four years. Spring wheat planting is 94% complete vs. 95% expected, 88% last week, 91% last year and 90% on average and 78% of the crop has emerged vs. 69% on average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $1.05 lower while feeder cattle closed $1.57 lower.

Last week, the North saw light trade volumes at $190 live and $301 dressed, which is steady with last week. Light trade in the South at $185 live, which is $1 softer than the previous week.

Last week, the Fed Cattle Exchange offered 1,694 head for sale and 368 head of cattle sold at $188.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were down 1 pound from last week at 920 pounds, which is 37 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 14,500 mts with shipments of 15,300 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have re-established window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential as values approach weekly resistance.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $4.87 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending June 1 are up to 290.4 pounds vs. 288 pounds last week and 283.8 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report has net pork sales of 29,900 mts with shipments of 34,400 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have re-established hedges as values tested weekly chart resistance and commercials were hedging.