NEWS

*NFA has ordered Richard Alexander Acosta to not apply for NFA membership status for five years and not to act as a principal of an NFA Member for seven years. Acosta is a former NFA Associate and a previous associated person and principal of Bit5ive Mining Fund Advisor, LLC (Bit5ive Advisor), a former NFA Member commodity pool operator located in Doral, Florida. The Decision, issued by an NFA Hearing Panel, found that Acosta willfully provided false and misleading information to NFA and failed to cooperate promptly and fully with NFA. In September 2023, NFA issued an emergency enforcement action against Bit5ive Advisor and Acosta, which suspended them from NFA membership and imposed other restrictions on them (e.g., prohibited them from soliciting or accepting any investor funds).

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.06 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sale of 4.1 million bushels (mb) of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended July 25, were 41.7 million bushels, up slightly from the previous week’s 39 mb and significantly higher than last year’s same-week exports of 21.2 mb while continuing to run above the roughly 32.7 mb/week average that will be needed over the final five weeks of the 2023-24 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.225 billion bushel export projection. Cumulative Export Inspections of 1.837 billion bushels are up 34% from last year’s 1.371 billion, right in line with USDA estimating 23-24 exports to be up 33.9% vs last year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production rose to a record 1,109K barrels per day in the week ending July 26, up from 1,095K bpd the previous week, and up from 1,067K bpd in the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to a 10-week high of 24 million barrels in the week ending July 26, up from 23.7 million barrels the previous week, and up from 22.9 million barrels in the same week last year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report. U.S. corn conditions rose 1% to 68% good/excellent vs. 66% expected, 67% last week, and 55% last year. Iowa conditions rose 2% to 77% while Illinois rose 1% to 76%, Indiana rose 1% to 70% and South Dakota was up 3% to 72%; while Missouri was unchanged at 78% as well as Minnesota at 58%, while Nebraska lost 1% to 74%. 77% is silking and 30% is in the dough stage.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.17 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 12.3 mb of soybeans to China.

U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 14.8 mb, up slightly from the previous week’s 12.4 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 12.3 mb. More importantly, this was the first week of the last 10 weeks in which soybean exports met the current average “needed” pace of 13.9 mb/week, hopefully a sign exports may pick up enough over the final five weeks of 2023-24 to reach the USDA’s 1.7 billion bushel export projection. Including today’s data, soybean export inspections over the last four weeks averaged 11.1 million bushels/week, with cumulative export inspections of 1.571 billion bushels being down 15.3% from last year’s 1.856 billion vs. USDA estimating exports to be down 14.1% from last year.

The crop progress report showed U.S. soybean conditions fell 1% to 67% good/excellent vs. 67% expected, 68% last week and 52% last year. Iowa conditioned rose 2% to 76%, Minnesota gained 3% to 60%, South Dakota rose 2% to 72% and Indiana was up 1% to 69%; while Illinois lost 4% to 72% and Missouri lost 4% to 75%. 77% of the crop is blooming.

In the monthly Census crush report, USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in June was 183.7 million bushels, slightly below average market expectations of 184.6 million and down seasonally from May crush of 191.8 million bushels but still a solid 5.2% higher than year-ago June crush of 174.6 million bushels while again being a new record for the respective month. USDA reported 2.187 billion pounds of soybean oil was produced in the U.S. in June vs. 2.269 billion in May and 2.075 billion pounds last year June, with crushers achieving an average soybean oil yield of 11.90 pounds/bushel in June vs. 11.83 in May and 11.89 in June last year. Through the first nine months of the 2023-24 soybean oil marketing year, total production of 20.616 billion pounds compares to 19.956 billion last year. USDA reported end June U.S. soybean oil stocks were 2.125 billion pounds, solidly above average market expectations of 2.081 billion and above the range of market ideas of 2.060-2.102 billion pounds while declining only slightly from May stocks of 2.188 billion pounds and being modestly below year ago June stocks of 2.203 billion pounds.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.15 3/4 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.16 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

U.S. wheat export inspections, in the eighth week of the 2024-25 marketing year, were 15.8 mb and were the second highest of the year so far but still below last year’s same-week exports of 21.5 mb which were the second largest of the 2023-24 marketing year. Cumulative export inspections of 112 million bushels are up 11% from last year’s 101 million vs. USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection reflecting an expected 16.7% increase in exports for the year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 15.6 mb/week for the rest of the marketing year vs. last year’s 13.3 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, Spring wheat conditions fell 3% to 74% good/excellent vs. 75% expected, 77% last week and 42% g/e last year. Overall conditions are the second best of the last 14 years. Minnesota gained 1% to 83%, North Dakota lost 2% to 81%, South Dakota gained 7% to 70% and Montana lost 7% to 69%. One percent of the crop is harvested. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 82% complete vs. 83% expected, 76% last week, 77% last year and 80% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $6.57 lower while feeder cattle closed $9.97 lower.

Last week, light fed cattle cash trade volumes in the North were at $196 live and $310 dressed, which is $2 softer both live and dressed compared to last week. Light trade in the South was at $188 live, which is mostly $2 lower than last week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were steady with last week at 915 pounds, which is 22 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 17,700 mts for 2024 with shipments at 16,200 mts

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have re-established window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential as values approach weekly resistance.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.60 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending July 27 has weights at 282.7 pounds vs. 283.6 pounds last week and 276.8 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report has net pork sales of 31,500 mts for 2024 with shipments of 30,100 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have re-established hedges as values tested weekly chart resistance and commercials were hedging.