Rainfall, lower exports govern forage prices
Record and constant rainfalls in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota throughout this growing season, along with lower exports of resulting lower-quality hay and forage, has combined to send prices in a downward trend for this fall, according to Amber Friedrichsen, associate editor of “Hay and Forage” magazine.
Friedrichsen said in a “recurring theme this summer,” heavy rainfall delayed first, second and third cuttings of alfalfa, and the harvest pace has needed to be quick in order to get the hay up between rains. She said rain falling on cut hay has resulted in a lower quality overall due to leaf loss/shatter, and health fallout for plants because of it.
Friedrichsen said a Minnesota farmer she spoke with harvested in wet fields in order to target better forage quality, but expects lower alfalfa production next year due to compaction damage from heavy equipment in saturated soils this year.
A farmer in the Cambridge, Minnesota, area experienced damage from the alfalfa weevil, which can result in defoliation, discoloration of plants, reduced growth and damage to the “bark” (stem) of the plant. Eggs are laid in the stem of alfalfa plants in spring (typically around mid-May). The larvae, rather than adults, are the stage that can cause economic injury to alfalfa. The feeding of alfalfa weevil larvae causes round holes in the upper foliage that can skeletonize leaves so only leaf veins remain.
A farmer from Larchwood said his first cutting was manageable, but he received torrential rains in June (15 inches of rain in 48 hours, along with other heavy amounts of rain at a time), followed by a dry July and August.
Due to rain falling on cut hay and the loss in quality that often follows, northwest Iowa and parts of southern Minnesota have a larger supply of lower-quality forage.
Friedrichsen said the quality decline is proportional to the timing and amount of rainfall. She said fresh-cut, rained-on hay that has had time to dry down and wilt in the windrow results in greater dry matter losses.
“That rain is going to cause the soluble carbohydrates to leach out, and that’s going to leave you with higher concentrations of the structural carbohydrates to the fiber components of forage really bringing down forage quality,” Friedrichsen said.
She added that leaf loss/shatter can contribute negatively to forage protein content, too.
“Rained-on hay can be a pretty frustrating situation,” said Friedrichsen, adding that the Larchwood producer she spoke with estimated that the hay he baled and wrapped before the rains came versus those that were processed afterward had a 50-point difference in relative hay value.
“It shows you how devastating a crop of rained-on hay can be in terms of forage quality,” she said.
Friedrichsen said wide swaths can help forages dry out faster because the sun can penetrate it easier. She said roller conditioners for alfalfa help break open the stem and speed up the transfer of water from there into the atmosphere.
She said she has heard of wet baleage being wrapped at 60 percent moisture to try to capture a higher-quality forage, but creating more expense for producers in trucking, with fewer, heavier bales per load for which to pay.
The flip side of this, she said, is that low-quality forage could replace cornstalks for beef feedlots.
Prices and stocks
Friedrichsen said because of record precipitation in northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota, there is a high supply of low-quality forage, and a low supply of high-quality forage, which is what dairies seek out.
She said hay prices are regional, and in those areas where precipitation has inundated forage fields, their prices reflect that weather.
Friedrichsen said U.S. hay prices in general are coming down from historically high prices, with alfalfa reaching nearly $290/ton in 2023. Prices for 2024 in the U.S. are averaging $200/ton, similar to 2019 prices.
“Prices are not that far from typical, but are very far off from what they were last year,” she said.
She said the USDA crop production report predicts a 5% increase in alfalfa mixes, adding that May 1 hay stocks are the highest since 2017. This could be due to the fact that beef and dairy herds have been slow to rebound following culling that occurred during recent drought years, and competitive feed prices.
U.S. hay stocks show 21 million tons, she said, up more than 47 percent year-over-year, along with record low disappearance (hay consumption) at 55.7 million tons between Dec. 1 and May 1.
Friedrichsen said export demand for U.S. forages are lower, adding that it has as much to do with the strong U.S. dollar and challenging exchange rates. She said China has been the U.S.’ biggest export market for alfalfa hay for many years.
What should be done?
Friedrichsen said producers should sample forage as it goes into storage to inspect quality and storage ability, and “redefine” high- and low-quality forages as they are on each farm.
She said producers can/should leverage low commodity prices, using an example of corn gluten and soybean hulls, and think outside the box in order to see through this time of low prices until they see stronger positive margins ahead.
Friedrichsen said hay and forage fields show their greatest yield potential at year three or four, then decline rapidly after that. Taking alfalfa out of production for a time could help, taking a late-summer cutting to get some final high-quality forage before rotating on to another crop for a time.
She said planting a fall forage could help boost and diversify forage inventories.
Friedrichsen said producers can cut hay in the late summer as much as possible to capture higher-quality alfalfa, and plant a fall forage to boost forage inventories. She said producers could also tap into alternative forages if possible.