NEWS

*Congress is facing a September 30 deadline to prevent a government shutdown. House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through March. However, it did not have enough Republican votes to pass. A farm bill extension was not included in that stopgap spending bill. A farm bill vote may be delayed until after the election.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.12 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Sept. 12, were 20.5 million bushels (mb), falling from the previous week’s 33.0 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 26.6 mb. Now nearly two weeks into the new 2024-25 marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 39.1 million bushels compare to 51.7 million last year, leaving exports needing to average roughly 40.4 million bushels/week over the course of the year to reach the USDA’s 2.3 billion bushel export projection vs.. last year’s 39.9 million/week average.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended Sept. 13, fell to 1.049 million barrels/day (mbpd) from 1.080 mbpd the previous week, sinking to a 12-week low. However, with weak year-ago production of 980,000 bpd, this week’s production was still up 7% vs. last year as ethanol production continues to run quite solidly relative to year-ago levels, being up 5.4% on average over the last five weeks. With the 2024-25 corn marketing year just underway, U.S. ethanol production will need to average roughly 1.041 mbpd throughout the year to reach the USDA’s 5.450 billion bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate, which would be essentially unchanged from 2023-24’s 1.043 mbpd average. Despite the decline in production, U.S. ethanol stocks last week rose to 23.785 million barrels from 23.714 million barrels the previous week but hitting a seven-week high in the process. Moreover, ethanol stocks remain a solid 9.7% (88 million gallons) above last year’s same-week stocks of 911 million gallons and remain record-high on a same-week basis.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn conditions were up 1% to 65% good/excellent vs. 63% expected, 64% last week and 51% last year. 45% of the crop is mature and 85% is dented. Corn harvest is 9% complete vs. 10% expected, 5% last week, 8% last year and 6% average. Missouri is 25% harvested and Kansas is 26% done.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not been achieved yet. Look to add 2025 hedges on latest rally.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.07 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.5 mb of soybeans to China and 4.9 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 14.7 mb were little-changed from the previous week’s 13.4 mb, as well as last year’s same-week exports of 15.8 mb. Now 12 days into the 2024-25 marketing year, cumulative exports of 24.8 million bushels compare to 29.5 million bushels last year, leaving exports needing to average roughly 35.1 million bushels/week over the 2024-25 marketing year to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection vs. last year’s 32.2 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, soybean conditions were down 1% to 64% good/excellent vs. 64% expected, 65% last week and 52% last year. 44% of the crop is dropping leaves. Soybean harvest is 6% complete vs. 4% expected, 4% last year and 3% average.

The NOPA crush report saw August crush well below trade estimates at 158.0 mb vs. 171.3 mb expected and last month’s 182.9 mb. It was even below last year’s 161.5 mb. Not only did August crush post the first monthly year-over-year decline in four months and only the second of the 2023-24 marketing year, but August crush by NOPA members was the outright lowest in 35 months and, even more impressively, was the lowest for the month of August in seven years. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.138 bp vs. 1.356 bp estimated, 1.499 bp last month and 1.250 bp last year. This was the lowest outright monthly production in 23 months and the lowest for the month of August since 2021.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not yet been achieved. Look to add 2025 hedges on the latest rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.25 3/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.34 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not report any U.S. wheat purchases.

U.S. wheat export inspections last week were 20.5 mb, slipping slightly from the previous week’s 22.8 mb but besting year-ago same-week exports of 15.5 mb. Over the last four weeks, wheat exports averaged 21.4 million bushels/week, solidly better than last year’s 14.1 million/week average during the same period, allowing cumulative export inspections of 255 million bushels to tally a 34% gain vs. last year’s 190 million, now through the first 15 weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year. In order to reach the USDA’s 825 million bushel export target, wheat shipments will need to average roughly 14.7 million bushels/week through the end of next May vs. last year’s 13.4 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat harvest advanced to 92% complete vs. 93% expected, 85% last week, 91% last year and 90% average. North Dakota is 88% complete. Winter wheat seedings are 14% complete vs. 13% expected, 6% last week, 13% last year and 13% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE &

FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $5.00 higher while feeder cattle closed $4.67 higher.

The monthly Cattle on Feed report held very few, if any, surprises for the trade with numbers almost perfectly mirroring the pre-report estimates. On feed supplies as of Sept. 1 came in at 100.6% vs. estimates of 100.9%, which was also slightly above last month’s 100.3% figure. Placements in the month of August totaled 98.6%, slightly below the estimates of 99.0% and well below the placements last month that were 105.8% of a year ago. Marketings came in at 96.4%, just below the 96.6% estimated and down from the prior month’s 107.7%.

Last week, moderate trade volumes were seen in the North at $184 live and $290 to $292 dressed which is mostly $2 firmer compared to last week. Light to moderate trade has been seen in the South at $183 to $183 live, which is $2 to $3 higher than last week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 8 pounds from last week at 941 pounds, which is 24 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 15,500 mts for 2024 with shipments at 16,400 mts. Last week, boxed beef sold for export increased 38 loads from the prior week. At 840 loads, they were 174 loads above the same week last year. Last week was the sixth consecutive week that export sales were above the prior year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have re-established window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $3.87 higher. Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Sept. 14 has weights down slightly to 283.5 pounds vs. 284.0 pounds last week and 278.9 pounds last year. The weekly export sales report has net pork sales of 29,000 mts for 2024 with shipments of 31,400 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have lifted hedges as values tested weekly chart support.