Economist gives pork market outlook
Hart: Pork prices are slowly improving across US
Pork prices have been slowly improving the past three months and with a new campaign being launched by the National Pork Board, demand hopefully will continue to grow.
“2024 has still been a rough year for the pork industry. It’s not nearly as bad as what we went through in 2023, but we’re still dealing with fairly high production costs,” said Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension agriculture economist. “Feed costs have come down somewhat and we’re seeing prices improve, but we’re still trying to catch up to those costs.”
External factors such as the port strike, barge backlog and the hurricanes do play a role in the markets, but pork sales are up 3.5 percent and exports continue to grow.
“We definitely need that to continue so it keeps positive pressure on the marketplace,” Hart said.
There’s been some growth out of Mexico and Japan, as well as in South America. Canada has pulled back a bit since their pork herd is a bit bigger this year. China continues to remain a strong buyer, Hart noted.
“International demand has been good and continues to help us work through all the pork we have. At the same time, too, we’re beginning to see the industry in the past couple of years trying to slow down the growth in production,” Hart said. “It looks like that may be occurring still as we’re taking supplies down a bit and demand is a bit up. That’s the recipe we’ve seen for increasing prices the last few months.”
Litter sizes continue to bolster productivity with a jump in average pigs per litter. But the number of sows farrowing has dropped 2 percent from last year.
“Things seem to be steady. When you look at the inventory of all the hogs and pigs in the last September report from the USDA, numbers show we’re still growing, but not nearly as quickly as we had been,” Hart said.
David Newman, senior vice president of market growth for the National Pork Board, said 2025 appears to be another interesting year for producers.
“There may be some profitability built in there, which will be great,” Newman said.
While demand has grown since pre-COVID, a new campaign in the works by the National Pork Board will focus on driving consumer demand domestically.
“This year has continued to be a very good year for exports. Mexico has been carrying a significant amount of the volume and 2025 should continue that way. Exports are crucial, but this initiative will focus on a massive consumer-facing marketing campaign that focuses more on Gen Zs and Millennials. It will launch in 2025 and focus on the attributes that consumers love about pork — its taste, its flavor, its balance. Think human nutrition and convenience,” Newman said. “This is what the younger generation is looking for. We will celebrate pork’s flavor and flexibility, whether processed or fresh. It’s an amazing protein.”