NEWS

*Clayton County, Iowa, farmer Michael Wayne Butikofer was sentenced to more than 15 years in prison and ordered to pay more than $5.7 million in restitution after pleading guilty to livestock theft, wire fraud and making false bankruptcy declaration, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of Iowa. The Monona, Iowa, farmer admitted to stealing more than $5 million in livestock and COVID-19 pandemic benefits. Butikofer operated a large farming operation in northeast Iowa known as Fawn Hollow, which included a so-called custom cattle-feeding operation. Employees would raise and care for cattle owned by other individuals, including cattle investors located across the United States. Fawn Hollow then sold the cattle, primarily to a Wisconsin slaughterhouse.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.12 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 22.0 million bushels (mb) to an unknown destination and 71.7 mb to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Oct. 10, were 16.9 million bushels, down notably from the previous week’s 37.3 mil bu but in line with last year’s same-week exports of 18.4 mb while falling to the lowest of the first six weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year. Cumulative export inspections of 186 million bushels are still up 19% from last year’s slow-starting 156 million bushels, leaving shipments needing to average roughly 41.2 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs. last year’s 41 million/week average from this point forward.

The weekly EIA report shows ethanol production at 1,042 mb, up slightly from last week’s 1.038 mb. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22,275 mb vs. 22,154 mb the week prior.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, the USDA pegged U.S. corn conditions at 64% good/excellent vs. 64% expected, 64% last week and 53% last year. Corn harvest advanced to 47% complete vs. 44% expected, 30% last week, 42% last year and 39% average. 94% of the crop is mature vs. 87% last week and 89% on average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not been achieved yet. Look to add 2025 hedges on latest rally.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.37 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 17.2 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination and sales of 4.8 mb of soybeans to China. There was a sale of 21,000 mts of bean oil sold to Mexico.

U.S. soybean exports last week were seasonally solid at 57.9 million bushels, little-changed from the previous week’s 59.7 mb but well below year-ago, same-week exports of 77.5 mb, resulting in cumulative export inspections of 189 million bushels falling back below last year’s 202 million through six weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection, which reflects expectations for a 9% increase from 2023-24, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 34.7 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs. last year’s 31.3 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. national soybean harvest moved to 67% complete vs. 64% expected, 47% last week, 57% last year and 51% average. Ninety-five percent of the crop is dropping leaves vs. 90% last week and 92% on average.

The monthly NOPA crush report saw September crush well above expectations at 177.32 mb, a new record for September vs. estimates of 170.3 mb and well above last month’s 158.0 mb and last year’s 165.5 mb. Soybean oil stocks were 1.066 bp vs. 1.083 bp estimated, less than a month ago’s 1.138 bp and last year’s 1.108 bp.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not yet been achieved. Look to add 2025 hedges on the latest rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.26 1/2 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.23 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 4.4 mb of SRW to Mexico.

U.S. wheat exports last week were modest at 13.6 million bushels and were little-changed from the previous week’s 13.4 mb as well as last year’s same-week exports of 13.1 mb. Now through 19 weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 330 million bushels are up 33% from last year’s 248 million as, despite the slowdown in recent weeks, wheat shipments over the last 10 weeks averaged a very respectable 19.9 mb/week vs. 13.6 mb/week during the same period last year. In order to reach the USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 14.2 million bushels/week from this point forward vs. last year’s 13.3 million/week average.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. winter wheat seedings moved to 64% complete vs. 66% expected, 51% last week, 65% last year and 66% average. Emergence is 35% vs. 25% last week and 38% on average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.35 lower while feeder cattle closed $2.35 lower.

Last week, light to moderate trade volumes in the North at $187 to $188 live and $296 dressed, which is steady to $1 higher compared to last week. Moderate trade in the South at $187 to mostly $188 live, which is $1 firmer than last week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 9 pounds from last week at 950 pounds which is 28 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 14,100 mts for 2024 with shipments at 15,300 mts.

Last week, the export sales declined 28 loads from the prior week to 343 loads, which was the smallest non-holiday weekly sales volume since the COVID pandemic of 2020. Year-to-date boxed beef sold for export was 34,070 loads compared 35,504 loads last year for a year-to-date decline of 4%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $.20 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Oct. 12 has weights at 285.4 pounds vs. 284.8 pounds last week and 283.5 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report has net pork sales of 38,100 mts for 2024 with shipments of 34,000 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.