NEWS

*According to a poll of rural Americans by DTN, nearly 70 percent of the respondents support former President Donald Trump. The Pulse of Rural America poll found another 19 percent support Vice President Kamala Harris and 9 percent were undecided. Regarding national issues, 43 percent cited the national debt and budget deficit as their biggest concern. Seventeen percent of the responses are worried about Chinese ownership of U.S. farmland.

*NFA has ordered AC Investment Management, LLC (ACIM), an NFA Member commodity pool operator located in New York, N.Y., to pay a $100,000 fine. The complaint alleged that ACIM permitted Aurelian Plus LLC (Aurelian Plus), a pool ACIM operates, to make an improper loan to an affiliated entity, in violation of NFA Compliance Rule 2-45. The complaint also alleged that ACIM failed to uphold high standards of commercial honor and just and equitable principles of trade by failing to act in the best interests of Aurelian Plus, AGR Master LP, another pool the firm operates, and their participants.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.01 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 15.5 million bushels to an unknown destination, 4.8 million bushels to Japan and 30.8 million bushels to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections for the week ended Oct. 24 were 32.4 million bushels, slipping from the previous week’s 39.4 million bushels but easily beating year-ago same-week exports of 21.3 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, corn export inspections averaged 32.3 million bushels/week, solidly above last year’s slow-starting export program which saw same-period exports average 22.5 million bushels/week, allowing cumulative export inspections of 261 million bushels to move a marketing year high year-over-year gain to last year’s 196 million bushels of 33%. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 41.4 million bushels/week over the remainder of the 2024-25 marketing year vs. last year’s 42.0 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production rose to 1,082K barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending Oct. 25, up slightly from 1,081K bpd the previous week, and up from 1,052K bpd the previous year. U.S. ethanol stocks fell to 21.8 million barrels, which is a 47-week low, down from 22.2 million the previous week, but still up from 21.0 million barrels in the same week last year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. national corn harvest advanced to 81% complete last week vs. 80% expected, 65% last week, 68% last year and 64% average. Iowa harvest is 84% done while Illinois is 87%, Indiana is 77%, Minnesota is 85%, North Dakota 71%, South Dakota 78%, Nebraska 79% and Missouri 86%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not been achieved yet. Look to add 2025 hedges on the latest rally.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.02 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 12.1 million bushels of soybeans to an unknown destination and sales of 9.7 million bushels of soybeans to China. They also announced sales of 150,000 mts of meal to an unknown destination and 30,000 mts of bean oil to India.

U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 88.0 million bushels, declining slightly from the previous week’s 93.6 million bushels but beating year-ago, same-week exports of 75.4 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 77.8 million bushels/week, right in line with last year’s 75.3 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 382 million bushels maintaining a minor 2% gain vs. last year’s 374 million bushels through the first eight weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection, which reflects an estimated 9.1% increase from last year, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 31.9 million bushels/week from this point forward vs. last year’s 28.8 million/week average.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. soybean harvest moved to 89% complete vs. 91% expected, 81% last week, 82% last year and 78% average. Harvest in Iowa is 96% done, Illinois harvest is 90% done, Indiana 87%, Minnesota 98%, North Dakota 95%, South Dakota 96%, Nebraska 94% and Missouri 75%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not yet been achieved. Look to add 2025 hedges on the latest rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.02 1/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.06 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

U.S. wheat export inspections last week were disappointing at 9.1 million bushels, slipping from the previous week’s 9.1 million bushels and were a marketing year low through the first 21 weeks of 2024-25 but still beat last year’s same-week shipments of 7.3 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, wheat shipments averaged 11.6 million bushels/week vs. 9.5 million/week during the same period last year, with cumulative export inspections of 349 million bushels still up nearly 34% from last year’s 262 million, leaving exports needing to average roughly 14.5 million bushels/week through the end of next May to reach the USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection, which reflects an estimated 17% increase from last year, vs. last year’s 13.7 milion bushels/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S winter wheat seedings moved to 80% complete vs. 83% expected, 73% last week, 82% last year and 84% average. The first U.S. winter wheat conditions of the year came in at 38% good/excellent vs. 47% g/e expected, 47% g/e last year and 45% g/e five-year average. Initial winter wheat condition ratings were the second lowest of the last 37 years. Missouri conditions are 55% g/e, Nebraska 34%, Kansas 38%, Oklahoma 21% and Texas 30%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $2.97 lower while feeder cattle closed $1.47 lower.

Last week, active fed cattle cash trade in the North were at $188 to $190 live and $296 dressed, which is $2 softer both live dressed compared to last week. Moderate trade volumes in the South were at mostly $190 live, which is steady with the prior week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 10 pounds from last week at 960 pounds, which is 33 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 13,900 mts for 2024 with shipments at 15,700 mts.

At 1,049 loads last week, boxed beef sales were 21% below the prior week but 8% larger than the same week in 2023.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $4.50 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Oct. 26 has weights up slightly to 286.0 pounds vs. 285.5 pounds last week and 285.4 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report has net pork sales of 44,800 mts for 2024 with shipments of 32,300 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, re-established window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.