Crop prices have “returned to normal,” according to Iowa State University Extension Farm Management Specialist Alexis Stevens. But even with prices near the cost of production, they aren’t what they’ve been the past few years, leaving some farmers worried.

“We can’t expect markets to remain high forever,” said Stevens. “We are oversupplied in every commodity worldwide. We have had record or near record crops the last few years and it looks like this year will be the same. That’s great news for filling up the bins, but oversupply drives down the prices.”

According to Stevens, corn stocks have been building with projections at the end of the 2024 marketing year to exceed 2 billion bushels.

“This is a healthy 240 million bushels above corn stocks for the 2023 marketing year and 640 million bushels above stock levels in 2022,” said Stevens.

The nation is looking at the potential for a 15 billion-bushel corn crop, with eight states, including Iowa, seeing record corn yields.

“The October estimate for the national average corn yield is a whopping 6.5 bushels above the previous record set last year, soaring well above 180 bushels per acre for the first time,” said Stevens.

The southeast and eastern side of the Corn Belt are capturing smaller crops, but the western and central Corn Belt are making up for it.

“The corn market will have lots of kernels to feed and fuel users,” said Stevens.

The soybean market is similar, with current yield estimates at 53.1 bushels per acre, besting the record from 2021 of 51.7 bushels per acre. The previous soybean production record, also from 2021, was 4.464 billion bushels. The 2024 estimate is 4.582 billion bushels.

“There’s also a lot of beans for the markets to work with this fall,” said Stevens.

The oversupply means that many farmers will be storing corn and soybeans and waiting for higher prices, with many also waiting to see what happens with the upcoming election and a potential Farm Bill.

“There is a little bit of carry in the market, which might make sense to store and wait,” said Stevens. “For producers who have record yields, they may run out of space and have to store at the co-op or sell now.”

Dr. Chad Hart, professor of economics and Extension economist at Iowa State University, also believes that farmers will look to utilize their storage in hopes of capturing better prices, though winter storage shouldn’t add up to increased propane costs.

“Crops are coming out of the fields drier than usual, limiting the need to use propane for drying,” said Hart.

Even with the increased yields, the USDA has forecast farm incomes to remain low for the next 12 months without an anticipated timeline for increased prices.

“The big things that have moved us out of low prices have been ethanol, the 2012 drought, and COVID/supply chain, the war in Ukraine, etc.” said Stevens. “Obviously no one wants major natural disasters or another pandemic or war, so we can only hope for something positive to use up our oversupply and to move prices back up.”

The season average price for corn was $6.54 for the 2022 crop. That dropped to $4.55 per bushel in 2023, and the current projection is $4.10 per bushel for 2024.

Current corn futures roughly agree with that outlook, with the futures at the end of the WASDE report day signaling a $4.15 per bushel price. The corn futures prices for the 2025 corn crop are revealing slightly better news for next year, as prices are projected to slowly increase. The current futures-based season-average price estimate for the 2025 crop is $4.46 per bushel.

“For perspective, the cost of production for corn following beans with a yield of 202 bushels is $4.46, but our prices have been below this for most of the year,” said Stevens. “So some farmers will be struggling this year, and next year could be worse as they burn through their reserves from the last few years.”

The 2024 ending stocks estimate is 550 million bushels, more than double the stock level from 2022. And again, as stocks have grown, prices have fallen. The season-average price for soybeans was $14.20 per bushel for the 2022 crop. That dropped to $12.40 per bushel for 2023, and the current projection is $10.80 per bushel for 2024.

“Current soybean futures aren’t in alignment with that outlook. The market is more pessimistic for soybeans,” said Stevens. “Futures prices at the end of the WASDE report day signal a $9.80 per bushel price, a full dollar below the USDA estimate. The current futures-based season-average price estimate for the 2025 crop is $10.20 per bushel. But our cost of production estimates are all over $11, so we are losing money on beans.”

As many farmers close out the 2024 harvest and consider what to do with their grain, Stevens says it’s important to remember that crop prices follow a cycle and, while it’s at a low right now, it is expected to move back in a few years.

“I strongly encourage producers to contact a grain marketing professional or to work with the marketing specialists where they sell grain to find strategies that help them capture the highest market share,” said Stevens.