Political pollsters and analysts proved once again that election outcomes are hard to call and getting it right, so often as to have had a good track record, doesn’t mean much for the accuracy of forecasting the next. Ann Selzer, Peter Zeihan, Micheal Moore, James Carville, Dr. Allen Lichtman and some other very smart people got this election wrong. Selzer’s Iowa poll was a far out miss with her forecast for U.S. House seats in Iowa blowing up as well. Her Gold Standard status is now tarnished. Back to her drawing board. The election results were not a small miss. None of the polls saw the blow-out for Donald Trump and MAGA GOP coming.

One result is that we did not have to wait until late in the week to discover the winner. Trump appears to have swept all seven swing states, settling the matter quickly. Trump even won the popular vote, so it was not nearly as close as polls predicted. He will have one heck of a mandate to do with whatever he wants. There will be no hard pushback against the White House and GOP congress for at least the next two years.

CO2 pipelines lost the election too with South Dakota voters killing a bill that had already been passed by the legislature in South Dakota. The CO2 pipeline developers offered counties a revenue stream from their projects and all voters had to do was accept with a “yes” vote on what was called Referred Law 21. The no’s won with 60% of the vote. Ethanol plants, South Dakota Corn Growers and Chambers of Commerce all supported a yes vote. Some voters said that they did not understand the question and when that happens many tend to vote “no.” Project developers say that the project will still go on but they now have to deal with each county. Summit Carbon has approval in Iowa but needs to get through South Dakota to North Dakota where the CO2 will be sequestered.

CO2 sequestration lowers the carbon score of ethanol production, opening up a serious expansion of ethanol demand. Without this kind of new demand, corn will stay cheap and farm income will suffer. A farmer on our local county board of supervisors who supports wind turbines and CO2 pipelines lost his seat too. There is a populist pushback against economic development.

Our 4th district U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra is pro-CO2 pipeline and was re-elected with no trouble against a Democratic challenger who opposed them. Governors Reynolds and Noem both support the pipelines. For what it’s worth, I have it on good authority that Trump has told project developers that he supports the pipeline project. That includes Harold Hamm, who developed the Balkan shale oil region in North Dakota and is a GOP megadonor raising millions for Trump. Trumps new friend, Robert F. Kennedy, however, produced a video against the pipeline. So, support and opposition to the CO2 pipeline comes from all over the political map.

It appears that the GOP retained control of the U.S. House and flipped the Senate. Theoretically that would give them the leverage to write any farm bill that they want. Farm bills are often passed during lame duck sessions. Democrats could agree to go ahead and get it done knowing that GOP control is coming soon. House GOP ag leaders have expressed a willingness to do so. Until they clear a go-ahead on a farm bill with Trump, nothing is for sure.

Trump has not officially promised trade compensation to aid farmers yet, as was done in Trump’s first term. He should be pleased with how farmers voted. He is expected to threaten more tariffs, at least starting out as a threat. U.S. ag exports will take another hit if other nations retaliate on our ag products if tariffs are placed on their exports to the U.S.

Mexico stands out in that regard. They are our biggest buyer of corn and an important pork buyer. Two hundred perecent tariffs as threatened would get reciprocated. The assumption is that he would do likewise again using money raised from the tariffs, so from his view this costs U.S. citizens nothing.

The roll that Robert Kennedy plays in the ag and health policy will be interesting to follow. Many GOP officials see the deal that Kennedy made with Trump as just another exercise in political expediency for him to get votes but Kennedy did not see it that way. He intends to demand some power and influence in the administration. There will be some infighting as to who actually is in control of food and health policy. Trump said he would “let him go wild,” whatever that means.

Rural versus urban was one of the main deciders nationwide as to where Trump got votes. He won 90% of the counties, even improving his performance in the suburbs. That was enough to lift his vote total to where he wins the popular vote, which was the biggest election surprise of all. That gives him a real mandate. The clarity of his win deflated any post-election challenges, which may mean that the storm preceded the calm. The headwinds will come up again as his policies are implemented.

I think that the inclusion of Elon Musk in the budget process may turn out to be just what was needed. It’s worth a try. By bringing in Musk, Trump can float above the controversy. The country’s finances are on the wrong track and the trend of deficits and increasing federal debt is unsustainable. Nothing has worked to get the budget process together. Shutting the government down was not a fix. Both parties have failed. Congress has failed. I am open to seeing what Musk can come up with. He is not going to cut $2 trillion in spending while Trump cuts tax revenue further, but budget reconciliation has to begin somewhere. This will not be easy, because Americans have gotten used to getting more than they pay taxes for from the government and a solution would require austerity that they have shown they do not tolerate very well. Musk warns that the fix will hurt but is necessary. The billionaires will not be paying for it.