NEWS

*The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Company, also known as Farmer Mac, provided $2 billion in liquidity and lending capacity to rural lenders. Net interest income totaled nearly $87 billion, down nearly $1 billion from the third quarter last year. Going forward, Farmer Mac officials said proactive management of its balance sheet is its core focus.

*A Daviess County, Missouri man whose family farming operation stars in a reality TV show pleaded guilty in federal court Tuesday to a multi-million dollar insurance fraud scheme. Steve A. McBee, a 52-year-old man from Gallatin, Missouri, who stars in the reality TV series “The McBee Dynasty: Real American Cowboys,” pleaded guilty to one count of federal crop insurance fraud. By pleading guilty, McBee admitted he engaged in fraudulent activity from 2018 to 2020 that caused an economic loss to the U.S. Department of Agriculture of more than $4 million. Court documents said McBee admitted he made a false report to Rain and Hail, a company insured by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. The submitted fraudulent documents underreported his total 2018 corn crop by approximately 674,812 bushels and underreported his total 2018 soybean crop by approximately 155,833 bushels. The false reports led McBee to receive more than $2.6 million in federal crop insurance benefits he shouldn’t have claimed, along with more than $500,000 in federal crop insurance premium subsidies.

In addition to that specific felony charge he pled guilty to, McBee also said he committed additional fraud in 2019 and 2020. McBee is subject to a sentence of up to 30 years in federal prison without parole under federal statutes.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.07 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 11.5 million bushels (mb) to an unknown destination and 20.2 mb to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Nov. 7, were 31.2 million bushels and little-changed from the previous week’s 31.4 mb, as well as last year’s same-week exports of 28.3 mb.

Over the last four weeks, corn export inspections have been very consistent, ranging from 31.2-39.4 million bushels/week, while averaging 33.8 million/week for the period vs. last year’s 22.7 million/week average during the same period. Cumulative export inspections of 324 million bushels are up 31% from last year’s 247 million, leaving shipments needing to average roughly 41.9 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs. last year’s 42.8 million/week average from this point forward.

The weekly EIA report showed U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended Nov. 8, ticked up to 1.115 million barrels/day from 1.105 mbpd the previous week, while setting a new all-time record high weekly production rate in surpassing the previous weekly record of 1.109 mbpd for the week ended July 26. Moreover, last week’s production was a solid 6.3% above last year’s same-week production of 1.047 mbpd (308 million gallons/week), with production averaging plus-4.8% vs. last year over the last four weeks. U.S. ethanol stocks last week ticked higher to 22.039 million barrels from 22.020 million barrels the previous week and are 5.2% (46 million gallons) above year-ago same-week stocks of 880 million gallons as well as being the second highest on record on a same-week comparison basis.

In the weekly crop progress report, the U.S. corn harvest moved to 95% complete vs. 95% expected, 91% last week, 86% last year and 84% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not been achieved yet. Look to add 2025 hedges on latest rally.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.32 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.5 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 83.7 million bushels and nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 84.8 mb while being modestly above last year’s same-week exports of 73.9 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean inspections averaged 89.7 million bushels/week, modestly above last year’s 81.5 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 560 million bushels now up 6% from last year’s 528 million.

In order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, which reflects an expected 7.7% increase from last year, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 28.6 million bushels/week from this point forward vs. last year’s 26.6 million/week average from November through August.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. soybean harvest advanced to 96% complete vs. 97% expected, 94% last week, 94% last year and 91% average.

The NOPA crush report saw October crush at a new all time record of 199.959 mb vs. estimates of 196.8 mb and last month’s 177.3 mb. It was sharply higher than last year’s 189.8 mb. Soybean oil stocks were 1.069 bp, below estimates of 1.090 bp, although a touch higher than last month’s 1.066 bp and down from last year’s 1.099 bp.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges as harvest lows have not yet been achieved. Look to add 2025 hedges on the latest rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.35 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.25 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

U.S. wheat export inspections last week were 12.8 mb, modestly rebounding from the generally weak shipments the previous three weeks of 7.6-10.8 mb/week, but still running better than year-ago levels of late, having averaged 10.3 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. a rather weak stretch of shipments a year ago averaging 6.7 mb/week during the same period. Entering the sixth month of the 2024-25 marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 372 million bushels are up 35% from last year’s 275 million bushels, while the USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection reflects an expected 17% increase in exports this year vs. 2023-24. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 14.7 mb/week during November-May vs. last year’s 14.2 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, winter wheat planting is now 91% complete vs. 93% expected, 87% last week, 92% last year and 93% average. Winter wheat conditions improved 3% to 44% good/excellent vs. 44% good/excellent expected, 41% last week and 47% good/excellent last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.82 lower while feeder cattle closed $5.47 higher.

Last week, moderate fed cattle cash trade in the North at mainly $185 live and $290 dressed, which is $1 to $3 softer live and $4 softer dressed compared to last week. Moderate trade in the South at $185 live, which is $2 lower than the prior week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 1 pound from last week at 958 pounds, which is 31 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales report for 2024 were only 14,200 mts with shipments of 15,800 mts

Boxed beef exports last week increased 37 loads, 5.6%, from the prior week. At 700 loads, boxed beef sold for export last week increased 149 loads, 27%, from the same week last year. Year to date boxed beef sold for export were 1,201 loads below last year at 37,804 loads for a 3% decline.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approached weekly resistance, producers were encouraged to re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.17 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Nov. 9 has weights at 286.6 pounds up from 285.8 pounds last week vs. 287.3 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report has net pork sales for 2024 at 19,800 mts with shipments of 31,100 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COT is bearish and producers need to re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.