I can remember standing in the doorway to our home that leads to the basement looking to the west and seeing what is described as a “wall cloud” approaching.

There was a different smell in the air and rumble in the distance so that all of your senses are playing into what was happening. The wind will briefly still, literally becoming the calm before the storm. It could make the hair on your neck stand on end. It gave you a sense of raw power and that it was irresistible.

You hoped that it would provide needed rain, but there was also the possibility that wind and hail would bring it. You knew that things would look different after the storm passed than they did before and there was some angst mixed in the emotion of what that could turn out to be.

There would be some good and some bad in the aftermath of the storm. Would the crops be watered and the trees still standing? You hoped that your insurance policies were up to date. There would still be a deductible to pay. After feeling the leading wind gusts tip my cap, I would shut the door and retreat to the basement to join the family and ride it out. The experience was ominous as well as being a bit thrilling.

I see a wall cloud approaching this great country. It was coming regardless of the politics after decades of buildup. The people know it, which is why 75% of them say that the country is on the wrong track. I am not sure that the country is off the rails as far as some believe, but the rest of the world sure is.

I agree with Chase CEO Jamie Dimond that the greatest threat to the U.S. today is geopolitical. What darkens this wall cloud further is that the country is so polarized so as to not be as prepared to handle and absorb external shocks as we should be and instead are disrupting our own domestic tranquility as well.

Relative to the approaching wall cloud, it was not going to matter who was elected president. It is there, contributed to by all of the presidents that came before this century, with the voters deciding who they wanted to be in charge when it arrived. They made their choice. Time will show its wisdom. What I see and hear from Elon Musk is a warning of the necessity for, as well as the impact of, what he is charged with doing resetting the U.S. fiscal trajectory. I have also noted the accompanying preparatory response from Warren Buffett as he does a major defensive restructuring of the Berkshire portfolio which is now virtually half U.S. Treasuries.

The ag sector is where I live and it will not be missed by this coming storm. All of the big issues of the moment — immigration, trade, deficits, regulation — they all run right through or right over the ag sector.

Downturns are not surprising, wall clouds and accompanying storms come and they go. Some storms are of greater power and duration than others, becoming historic. This time it feels like it will not be isolated to ag but encompass the country as a whole … “The Ag being first in and last out of a recession thing.”

You do pretty much the same things when an economic wall cloud forms and threatens as you do ahead of the weather as that kind of wall cloud approaches. You check your insurance coverage to protect the value of your assets, you put off spending and gain liquidity, and then you shut all of the doors and windows and get someplace you feel safe.

The average gun owner owns 2 guns. I own 457 (some humor). It is not the first thing that you do but toward the last, but it will be to gain awareness of new opportunity. There will be something good that comes out of these storms that if your mind is in the right place that you can take advantage of.

Running around with your hair on fire will not benefit the next generation. Each generation experiences wall clouds and those that get past the storms become the legacy farms. I think that is most every farm family’s goal.

Here is where I am at on grain marketing: First order is to get smaller. Do not lead with your chin. Inventory bears risk and carries a cost. We can all commiserate over below- cost of production margins, but that is the valley that we have to cross. Costs will eventually come down and low prices do eventually cure low prices.

During the ag depression, my late father-in-law told me something that I did not believe at the time. It was that things would be as good past the depression as they were bad in it. That was too hard for me to imagine at the time, but he was right.

Looking back there was opportunity created. One has to survive first without losing your balance. It doesn’t help to come through such a tragedy so shell-shocked that you cannot bear risk thereafter.

Farmer consensus wants to believe that market lows put in last August “were the lows.” They are now thinking ahead, using those prices as benchmarks. There are lots of things that can happen that could burn prices yet. They include a strong dollar, tariff-initiated trade war, farm labor disruption (deportations}, food supply chain regulatory disruption (RFK) and further regulatory delay of CO2 pipelines … all contributing to demand weakening factors. On the supply side, we have trendline yields growing steeper than trendline demand and the emergence of Brazilian production dominance. Wild cards include an end to the war in Ukraine returning them to production. Under these circumstances I do not want to own grain … I want empty bins and hedges on new crop to limit market liability.

I have been behind where I want to be in marketing. It has been a characteristic of this bear market for us to place orders to advance sales that do not get hit. Recently we did some catch up — pushing sales and hedges. These prices are not profitable but they end further liability. That is the first step needed to be able to respond to opportunities. I do not like the technical chart look. That is why we pushed sales.

I see that wall cloud approaching and I believe it is time to get indoors.