NEWS

*Smithfield Foods and Murphy Family Ventures have signed an agreement, giving the Murphy family ownership of 150,000 sows now owned by Smithfield in North Carolina. As part of the arrangement, Smithfield will provide production services, including feed and transportation.

Smithfield previously announced plans to reduce its ownership of U.S. hog production by 20 percent and this agreement is part of that plan.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.02 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Dec. 12, were 44.5 million bushels (mb), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 41.7 mb, while being modestly above last year’s same-week exports of 37.8 mb, as the overall U.S. corn shipment pace continues to run solidly better than year-ago levels, for now. Over the last four weeks, U.S. corn export inspections averaged 40.8 mb/week vs. last year’s 32.3 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 524 million bushels, holding at a 31% gain to last year’s 400 million.

Accordingly, in order to reach the USDA’s recently-raised 2.475 billion bushel export projection, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 46.1 million bushels/week through next August vs. last year’s 44.5 million/week average from this point forward.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.04 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 19.6 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 61.6 mb were little-changed from the previous week’s 63.8 mb while being modestly larger than last year’s same-week exports of 52.4 mb.

Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 70.2 million bushels/week vs. last year’s 47.5 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 927 million bushels running 19% above last year’s 778 million in mid-December.

In order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 23.3 mb/week through the end of August, essentially identical to last year’s 23.4 million/week average from this point forward.

The NOPA crush report saw members report 193.185 mb crushed in November, below estimates of 196.7 mb and down from last month’s 199.9 mb, although well above last year’s 189.0 mb.

Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.084 bp vs. estimates of 1.123 bp. This is slightly higher than last month’s 1.074 bp and down from last year’s 1.214 bp and the lowest in 10 months.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised. Do not lift hedges yet and look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.04 1/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.04 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 11 million bushels were little-changed from the previous week’s 9.1 mb, last year’s same-week exports of 10.5 mb and the most-recent four-week average exports of 11.1 mb, while wheat exports during the same four-week period last year averaged 9.7 mb/week.

Cumulative export inspections of 424 million bushels are up 29% from last year’s 328 million, which featured slow first half marketing year shipments, averaging 11.6 mb/week through mid-December, but then picked up to average 15 million/week from this point forward vs. the estimated 16.5 mb/week average that will be needed to reach the USDA’s 850 million bushel export projection.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers have established a floor during the early May rally with put options and put/call spread as well as making 2024 cash sales. One hundred percent protection is advised.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $6.20 higher while feeder cattle closed $2.92 higher.

Last week, moderate fed cattle cash trade volumes in the North at $193 to $195 live and $300 to $305 dressed, which is $3 to $5 firmer both live and dressed compared to last week. Light to moderate trade in the South with the volume at $191 live, which is steady with the prior week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 2 pounds from last week at 954 pounds, which is 14 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales were 11,000 mts for 2024 and 5,400 mts for 2025 with shipments of 15,100 mts.

At 1,140 loads sold last week, export sales increased 55% from the prior week and 57% from the same week last year. Year-to-date export sales were 41,787 loads for a decline of 1.8% from last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, producers are encouraged to re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.85 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Dec. 7 has weights at 289.1 pounds last week, unchanged from the week prior and down from 290.6 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report were 22,500 mts for 2024 and 4,600 mts for 2025 with shipments of 33,800 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COT is bearish and producers need to re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.