NEWS

*The new Congress will convene Jan. 2 and a new farm bill will be on the radar. “We’ve been kicking the can down the road for quite some time,” said Sam Kieffer, vice president of public policy, American Farm Bureau. “The 2018 Farm Bill technically expired two years ago and here we are still operating under short-term extensions.” Kieffer believes Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig will help move a modernized farm bill forward. Klobuchar is the new ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee and Craig is the new ranking member on the House Ag Committee.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.02 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn exports, for the week ended Dec. 26, were 34.6 million bushels (mb) but declining from the previous week’s 45.1 mb and were the lowest in six weeks but still well above last year’s same-week exports of 22.4 mb. Over the last four weeks, U.S. corn exports averaged 41.6 million bushels/week vs. last year’s 34.3 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 605 million bushels now up 29% from last year’s 471 million vs. the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 8% increase from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 46.4 million bushels/week during Jan-Aug vs. last year’s 45 million/week average during the period.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended Dec. 27, ticked up to 1.111 million barrels/day from 1.107 mbpd the previous week and reflected production for the week 5.9% above last year’s late December week production of 1.049 mbpd. U.S. ethanol stocks posted a solid seasonal increase last week to 23.639 million barrels from 23.074 million barrels the previous week and marginally returning to above year-ago levels at the end of December of 990 million gallons.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.01 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 23,000 mts of bean oil to India.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 57.7 mb continued their seasonal decline, falling from the previous week’s 65.2 mb and were the lowest in 13 weeks but still solidly above last year’s same-week exports of 35.7 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean exports averaged 62.2 mb/week vs. 41.5 mb/week during the same period last year, as China continues to aggressively ship purchases of U.S. soybeans ahead of President-elect Trump taking office in a few weeks. As such, cumulative export inspections of 1.051 billion bushels are up a marketing year high 23% from last year’s 855 million bushels vs. the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an estimated 8% in 2024-25 exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s annual export projection, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 21.1 million bushels/week from this point forward vs. last year’s 22.5 million/week average during January-August.

In the Census crush report, the USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in November at 210 million bushels, solidly above average market expectations of 206.1 million and easily setting a new record for the month in exceeding last year’s November crush of 200.1 million bushels by 5%. The USDA reported U.S. soybean oil production in November was 2.490 billion pounds vs. 2.569 billion in October and 2.325 billion pounds last year November, with the U.S. average soybean oil yield in November of 11.85 pounds/bushel ticking down from October’s 11.91 but shattering the previous record for the month of November of 11.73 pounds/bushel in 2021. The USDA reported end-of- November U.S. soybean oil stocks at 1.613 billion pounds, sharply above average market expectations of 1.420 billion pounds.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.19 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.162 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 12.4 mb declined a bit from the previous week’s 14.9 mb but were slightly above year-ago same-week exports of 10.2 million bushels with shipments averaging 11.9 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. 12.2 million/week during the same period last year. Now nearly through the first seven months of 2024-25, cumulative export inspections of 451 million bushels are up 27% from last year’s 355 million vs. the USDA’s 850 million bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 20% increase in exports for the year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat exports will need to average roughly 16.9 million bushels/week during January- through May vs. last year’s 15.1 million/week average during the same period.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks to usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $3.15 higher while feeder cattle closed $3.25 higher.

Last week, moderate fed cattle cash trade volumes in the North were at $200 live and $315 dressed, which is $4 to $5 firmer live and $8 higher dressed compared to last week. Moderate to active trade in the South was at $195 to $197 live, which is $3 to $4 firmer than the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout moved higher this week with the Choice cutout adding $3.09/cwt. and the Select cutout increasing $5.46/cwt.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 3 pounds from last week at 953 pounds, which is 13 pounds above year-ago levels.

The weekly export sales were 11,100 mts for 2024 and 13,500 mts for 2025 with shipments of 12,200 mts

Last week’s boxed beef sales total declined 370 loads from the prior week for a decline of 46%, while posting a 4% decline from the same week last year. The year-to-date total, not including the two days this week, is 43,654 loads, which is 1,051 below last year for a 2.4% year-on-year decline.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, producers are encouraged to re-establish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential. The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $3.37 lower.

In the monthly cold storage report, total red meat supplies in freezers were down 3 percent from the previous month and down 5 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 2 percent from the previous month but down 4 percent from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 8 percent from the previous month and down 6 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 39 percent from last month but down 53 percent from last year.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Dec. 28 has weights up to 292.3 pounds from 289.7 pounds last week and 292.5 pounds last year.

The weekly export sales report were 7,500 mts for 2024 and 13,500 mts for 2025 with shipments of 12,200 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COT is bearish and producers need to hedge or establish fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.