NEWS

U.S. ethanol exports soared to a record 1.72 billion gallons in November 2024, surpassing the previous high of 1.67 billion gallons set in 2018.

“It wasn’t always the easiest times for corn producers because commodity prices came down, but that led to ethanol being highly competitive in both the U.S. and on the international market,” said Renewable Fuels Association Chief Economist Scott Richman. “Canada is by far the No. 1 destination, taking a little bit more than a third of the exports. Following that, you’ve got the United Kingdom, the European Union, and India.”

With one month of data remaining for the year, exports are projected to reach nearly 1.9 billion gallons, accounting for 12 percent of U.S. ethanol production.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.13 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 5.3 million bushels of corn to Taiwan.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Jan. 9, were a marketing year high at 56.7 million bushels, while rebounding sharply from the previous two weeks’ holiday-influenced exports of 34.5 million and 35.7 million bushels while also being sharply above last year’s same-week exports of 37.7 million bushels. Cumulative export inspections of 697 million bushels are up 27% from last year’s 551 million vs. the USDA’s 2.450 billion bushel export projection reflecting an expected 7% increase in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s annual export target, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 45 million bushels/week through the end of August, nearly identical to last year’s 45.3 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended Jan. 10, slipped to 1.095 million barrels/day from 1.102 mbpd the previous week but still reflecting production rates above the “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s 5.500 billion bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate as this week’s production was up 3.9% vs. last year’s same-week production of 1.054 mbpd. U.S. ethanol stocks last week jumped to 25.008 million barrels from 24.148 million barrels the previous week with last week’s 36 million gallon increase putting stocks at a 37-week high but still being 2.7% (29 million gallons) below year-ago same-week stocks of 1.079 billion gallons.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.09 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 19.4 million bushels of soybeans to China.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 49.6 million bushels, little-changed from the previous week’s 47.6 million bushels, as well as last year’s same-week exports of 47.0 million bushels.Cumulative export inspections of 1.151 billion bushels are up 22% from last year’s 940 million vs. the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 8% increase from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, soybean inspections would need to average roughly 20 million bushels/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 21.3 million/week average from this point forward.

The NOPA crush report came in at a new record for December at 206.604 million bushels, above estimates of 205.5 million bushels and well ahead of last month’s 193.2 million bushels and last year’s 195.3 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks were slightly below estimates of 1.253 million bushels at 1.236 bp, although well above last month’s 1.084 bp it was still below year-ago levels of 1.360 bp.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.09 1/2 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $02 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 10.6 million bushels were down from the previous week’s 15.2 million bushels and were the lowest in five weeks. Cumulative export inspections of 478 million bushels are up 25% from last year’s 382 million but slipping after having been up 35% vs. last year in early November. In order to reach the USDA’s 850 million bushel export projection, which reflects an expected 20% increase from last year, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 17 million bushels/week through the end of May vs. last year’s 15.2 million/week average from this point forward.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks to usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $1.95 lower while feeder cattle closed $1.02 lower.

Last week, active fed cattle cash trade volumes were noted in the North with a full range of $202 to $205 live and mostly $322 dressed. This is steady to $2 firmer live and $2 higher dressed compared to last week. Moderate trade in the South at $201 live, which is steady with the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout moved higher this week with the Choice cutout adding $2.63/cwt. and the Select cutout increasing $11.03/cwt.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 3 pounds from last week at 959 pounds which is 22 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef export sales were 9,700 mts for 2025 with shipments of 14,000 mts.

Boxed beef sold for export last week increased 35 loads to 515 which was 320 loads below the same week last year. The approximate number of loads sold so far this year is 995 loads compared to 1,488 loads to date last year for a 33% decline.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, producers are encouraged to reestablish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential. The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $.52 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Jan. 11 has weights at 292.2 pounds vs. 293.2 pounds last week and 291.3 pounds a year ago.

Net pork export sales were 30,300 mts for 2025 with shipments of 38,200 mts

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COT is bearish and producers need to hedge or establish fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.