NEWS

*Concerns over the Panama Canal have risen, particularly China’s influence on its operations. Soy Transportation Coalition Executive Director Mike Steenhoek said the discussions revolve around the Carter-Torrijos Treaty.

“One of the major elements of the treaty is that the Panama Canal shall be operated in a neutral fashion, so it’s not favoring one country or the next and if that neutrality is ever jeopardized, the U.S. military would be authorized to take action to ensure its neutrality.”

A Hong Kong-based company that operates two ports in the canal is currently under investigation. “The Panama Canal Authority and the government of Panama are doing an audit of the concession for a Hong Kong-based company, Hutchinson Port Holdings, which operates ports on the Atlantic side and on the Pacific side.”

Steenhoek said the leaders in Washington, D.C. are waiting for the results of this audit.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.04 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 13.1 million bushels (mb) of corn to Mexico and 5.2 mb of corn to South Korea.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Jan. 30, were 49.3 million bushels, little-changed from the previous week’s 49.2 mb, well above year-ago, same-week exports of 25.4 mb. Over the last four weeks, corn exports averaged an impressive 54 million bushels/week vs. just 32.2 million/week during the same period last year, allowing cumulative export inspections of 856 million bushels to move to a 10-week high gain to last year’s 642 mb of 33%. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.450 billion bushel export projection, which reflects an expected 7% increase from last year, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 44.2 mb/week through the end of August vs, last year’s 46.8 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended Jan. 31, jumped to 1.112 million barrels/day from the previous week’s sharp pullback to 1.015 mbpd, while hitting the highest level in 10 weeks and just short of the all-time weekly production record of 1.119 mbpd the week of Nov. 22, 2024. U.S. ethanol stocks surged higher, as well, jumping to 26.412 million barrels from 25.722 million barrels the previous week, while maintaining a 7% gain relative to last year’s same-week stocks of 1.041 billion gallons and returning to same-week record high status in moving above 2022’s 1.042 billion gallons in late January/early February.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the US will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.04 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 37.2 mb were up from the previous week’s 27.1 mb and were the highest in three weeks but were well below last year’s atypically-strong same-week exports of 64.4 mb which were a 12-week high at the time.

Accordingly, cumulative export inspections of 1.252 billion bushels slid to a 10-week year-over-year gain low of 16% to last year’s 1.082 billion bushels, with a continued slide likely in the weeks ahead as last year’s soybean exports averaged a rather solid 44.6 mb/week over the coming four-week period vs. the 33.4 million/week average seen over the last three weeks. Based on the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, which reflects an expected 8% increase from last year, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 18.7 mb/week from February through August, exactly the same as last year’s average export pace from this point forward.

The USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in December was 217.7 million bushels, exactly in line with average market expectations of 217.6 million and up from November crush of 210 million bushels while reflecting a 6.6% increase from last year’s December crush of 204.3 million bushels and a new all-time monthly record in exceeding October’s 215.8 million bushels.

USDA reported end December U.S. soybean oil stocks were 1.696 billion pounds, rising slightly in weak seasonal fashion from 1.613 billion pounds in November and were mostly in line with average market expectations of 1.734 billion pounds. This was solidly below year-ago December stocks of 1.824 billion pounds and holding at the lowest level for the month of the last 10 years.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.21 1/4 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.23 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week slipped to an eight-week low of 9.3 mib from the previous week’s 17.8 mb. Over the last four weeks, wheat exports averaged 11.9 mb/week vs. 10.4 million/week average during the same period last year, allowing cumulative export inspections of 515 mb to maintain a 24% gain to last year’s 415 mb vs. the USDA’s 850 million bushel export projection reflecting an expected 20% increase in exports from last year. Wheat exports will need to average roughly 17.8 mb/week from February through May to reach the USDA’s annual export target vs. last year’s 16 million/week average from this point forward.

State by state winter wheat conditions show Kansas at 50% g/e vs. 47% last month and 54% last year; Montana at 71% g/e vs. 42% last month and 41% last year; North Dakota at 46% vs. 40% last month and 60% last year; South Dakota at 25% vs. 22% last month and 53% last year; Oklahoma at 40% vs. 45% last month 63% last year and Texas at 37% vs. 42% last month and 42% last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks to usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $3.92 lower while feeder cattle closed $11.20 lower.

Last week, moderate fed cattle cash trade volumes in the North at $208 live and $328 dressed which is steady to $2 softer live and $2 lower dressed compared to last week. Light to moderate trade in the South at $206 live which is $2 lower than the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout moved lower this week with the Choice cutout dropping $3.50/cwt. and the Select cutout decreasing $1.13/cwt.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were down 6 pounds from last week at 948 pounds which is 36 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef export sales were 24,900 mts for 2025 with shipments of 19,800 mts.

Boxed beef sale loads declined 658 from the prior week for a 48% decline. At 721 loads, the total was 352 loads below the same week last year for a 33% decline. Year-to-date boxed beef sales through last week totaled 4,148 loads, which was 618 loads below last year for a 14% year-on-year decline.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As prices approach weekly resistance, producers are encouraged to reestablish window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential. The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.77 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Feb. 1 has weights at 290.7 pounds vs. 290.8 pounds last week and 290.8 pounds last year.

Net pork export sales were 50,700 mts for 2025 with shipments of 37,800 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COT is bearish and producers need to hedge or establish fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.