NEWS

*The fate of the farm bill remains uncertain as House and Senate Republicans struggle to agree on the budget negotiations. Pro-farmer Washington Policy Analyst Jim Wiesemeyer said the House is pushing for deep spending cuts, particularly in food assistance programs, while the Senate is taking a more moderate stance. “The initial push will be to get the one beautiful bill,” said Wiesemeyer. “I think the House leadership is right, it’s going to be so hard to get the votes initially, but by no means do we know that for sure, and anyone who says they do, put your hand on your wallet because they don’t know.” Wiesemeyer added that the outcome of budget reconciliation will determine whether farm bill programs are included or if Congress moves forward with a separate farm bill.

*Deere and Company reports fiscal 2025 first quarter net income of $869 million, down from $1.75 billion in 2024. Sales fell 30 percent to $8.5 billion. Deere says it expects 2025 sales at its production and precision agricultural division to fall 15 to 20 percent in fiscal 2025. Operating profit for the quarter was down 68 percent to $338 million.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.04 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Feb. 13, were 63.4 million bushels, up from the previous week’s 53.4 million bushels (mb) and well above last year’s same-week exports of 41.4 mb, while being the highest through the first 24 weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year so far. Over the last six weeks, corn exports averaged an impressive 55.5 million bushels/week vs. last year’s 34.2 million/week average during the same period, pushing cumulative export inspections of 974 million bushels to a 35% gain vs. last year’s 719 million bushels, the largest year-over-year percentage gain in 12 weeks. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.450 billion bushel export projection, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 43.1 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 47.4 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended Feb. 14, was nearly unchanged at 1.084 million barrels/day from the previous week’s 1.082 mbpd, while also being exactly in line with last year’s same-week production of 1.084 mbpd as was the case the previous week, as well. With the year-over-year gains in production the last two weeks of January, U.S. ethanol production over the last four weeks averaged plus-2.5% vs. last year, continuing to run above the 0.7% average decline.

U.S. ethanol stocks last week rose to 26.218 million barrels from 25.692 million barrels the previous week, while returning to same-week record-high status after the previous week’s slight pullback. Current ethanol stocks are slightly above last year’s same-week stocks of 1.071 billion gallons and moved back above the previous record for mid-February of 1.075 billion gallons in 2023.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.03 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 26.5 million bushels, down from the previous week’s 40.3 mb and well below last year’s same-week exports of 47.5 mb while being the lowest in 20 weeks as the seasonal decline in U.S. soybean shipments continues. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 34.0 million bushels/week vs. last year’s 48.7 million/week average during the same period, resulting in cumulative exports of 1.323 billion bushels slipping to a 12% gain vs. last year’s 1.179 billion, the smallest year-over-year percentage gain in 12 weeks. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, soybean shipments will need to average roughly 17.5 million bushels/week through the end of August.

The NOPA crush report came in at 200.38 mb vs. estimates of 204.5 mb, which is also lower than last month’s 206.6 mb, but well ahead of last year’s 185.8 mb. Oil stocks were pegged at 1.274 bp vs. 1.289 bp estimated and larger than last month’s 1.236 bp but down substantially from last year’s 1.507 bp.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.10 1/2 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.11 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week were also lower than expected at 9.2 mb, falling solidly from the previous week’s 20-week high of 21.0 mb while coming in below last year’s same-week exports of 15.4 mb.

Despite this week’s poor showing, average wheat exports over the last four weeks of 14.3 mb/week were slightly better than last year’s 12.9 million/week during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 546 million bushels still up 22% from last year’s 446 million bushels but slipping and now mostly in line with the USDA’s 850 million bushel export projection reflecting an expected 20% increase from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export projection, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 17.9 million bushels/week through the end of May vs. last year’s 16.1 million/week average from this point forward.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks-to-usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.60 lower while feeder cattle closed $.77 higher.

The monthly COF report was released Feb. 21 at 2 p.m. The report nearly matched pre-report trade expectations and should be considered neutral to slightly friendly. Monthly on feed supplies came in at 99.3% vs. estimates of 99.2% with 11.716 million head on feed; placements were less than anticipated at 101.7% vs. estimates of 102.7% and marketings were 101.4% vs. estimates of 102.1% of last year.

Last week, moderate trade volumes in the North at $199 to $200 live and $315 dressed which is $3 to $4 softer live and $5 lower dressed compared to last week. Light to moderate trade in the South at mostly $199 live which is $3 to $4 lower than the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout continued lower this week with the Choice cutout dropping $4.77/cwt. and the Select cutout decreasing $6.67/cwt.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were down 1 pound from last week at 951 pounds which is 39 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef export sales were 21,500 mts for 2025 with shipments of 14,200 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $4.90 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Feb. 15 has weights at 289.6 pounds vs. 290.0 pounds last week and 288.0 pounds last year.

Net pork export sales were 25,600 mts for 2025 with shipments of 30,000 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COT is bearish and producers need to hedge or establish fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential.