NEWS

*The North Dakota Stockmen’s Association and North Dakota Stockmen’s Foundation delivered nearly $1 million to victims of the October 2024 wildfires. These two organizations started the Out of the Ashes Wildfire Disaster Relief Fund with their own $50,000 donation and invited others to support the effort. The combination of 80 mile-per-hour winds and very dry air resulted in significant losses for cattle ranchers and landowners in western North Dakota. A total of 120,000 acres were consumed by fire.

*Advance Trading has new ownership. Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, also known as CIH, has announced its acquisition of the Bloomington, Illinois-based Advance Trading. The companies will continue to operate under their current names.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.03 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended March 27, were solid at 63.6 million bushels (mb) and ticked up from the previous week’s 60.5 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 57.9 mb. Over the last four weeks, corn export inspections averaged a very impressive 65.8 mb/week vs. last year’s 51.4 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative Export Inspections of 1.337 billion bushels up 31% from last year’s 1.020 billion. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.450 billion bushel export projection, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 38.5 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 46.6 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, ethanol average daily production for the week ending March 28 averaged 1.063 million barrels. This was up 0.9% from last week and down 0.9% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 0.977 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.441 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 26.612 million barrels. This was a new high stocks level for this week of the year. The previous high was 26.416 million barrels in 2024. This was down 2.7% from last week and up 0.7% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 24.857 million barrels.

The Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions report was virtually a yawner as stocks numbers came in nearly identical to expectations and planting intentions were very close to pre-report estimates as well.

Corn stocks came in at 8.151 bb vs. estimates of 8.154 bb and down from last year’s 8.352 bb. The USDA said U.S. farmers intend to plant 95.326 million acres of corn this spring, above estimates of 94.361 million and up from 90.594 million a year ago. This would be the third most acres seeded in history, trailing only 2013 when farmers planted 95.365 million acres and 2012 when farmers seeded 97.2 million acres.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.43 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced a sale of 135,000 mts of meal to the Philippines.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 29.1 mb were little-changed from the previous week’s 30.4 mb while being solidly above last year’s same-week exports of 8.3 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged a respectable 28.8 mb/week vs. last year’s 25.6 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative Export Inspections of 1.497 billion bushels up 9.8% from last year’s 1.363 billion. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 12.0 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 12.7 million/week average from this point forward.

The Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions report was virtually a yawner as stocks numbers came in nearly identical to expectations and planting intentions were very close to pre-report estimates as well. Soybean stocks came in at 1.910 bb vs. estimates of 1.905 bb and slightly higher than a year ago of 1.845 bb. Soybean acres were estimated at 83.495 million vs. estimates of 83.762 million and were 3.555 million less than a year ago.

The USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in February was 189 million bushels, in line with wire service-reported average market expectations of 188.7 million vs. 212.6 million bushels in January and 2.3% below last year’s February crush of 193.4 million bushels. U.S. soybean oil production in February was reported at 2.239 billion pounds vs. 2.527 billion in January and 2.288 billion pounds last year February, bringing Oct-Feb 2024-25 marketing year-to-date production to 12.372 billion pounds vs. 11.647 billion last year, up 6.2%. The USDA’s monthly Grain Crushings report preliminarily showed 421.2 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production in February vs. 445.5 million in February last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.01 1/2 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.06 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week were also solid at 16.0 mb but ticked down from the previous week’s 17.8 mb and were below last year’s same-week exports of 20.9 mb. Over the last four weeks, wheat export inspections averaged 15.2 mb/week vs. last year’s 17.3 million/week average during the same period, with cumulative Export Inspections of 635 million bushels up 16.4% from last year’s 546 billion. In order to reach the USDA’s 835 million bushel export projection, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 18.9 mb/week through the end of May vs. last year’s 15.7 million/week average from this point forward.

The Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions report was virtually a yawner as stocks numbers came in nearly identical to expectations and planting intentions were very close to pre-report estimates as well. Wheat stocks were pegged at 1.237 bb vs. estimates of 1.221 bb and 1.089 bb a year ago. All wheat acres were pegged at 45.35 million vs. estimates of 46.475 million, the smallest since 2020 and down from last year’s 46.079 million. This includes spring wheat acres at 10.02 million, which is down from 10.625 million last year and winter wheat at 33.315 million vs. 33.39 million last year.

Weekly wheat condition ratings: CO down 8 points to 58% good-to-excellent, IL up 13 points to 69% g/e, IN up 5 points to 72% g/e, KS flat at 49% g/e, NE up 7 points to 30% g/e, OK down 3 points to 33% g/e, and TX up 5 points to 63% g/e.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks to usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $6.65 lower while feeder cattle closed $10.10 lower.

Last week, moderate to active fed cattle cash trade in the North at $210 to $213 live and $335 dressed, which is $1 to $3 lower live and steady dressed compared to last week. Active trade volumes in the South at $208 live, which is $1 to $2 softer than the prior week.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 3 pounds from last week at 950 pounds, which is 26 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef export sales were 9,300 mts for 2025 with shipments of 14,900 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $4.22 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights came in at 291.4 pounds vs. 290.7 pounds last week and 287.1 pounds last year.

Net pork export sales were 53,000 mts for 2025, a marketing year high with shipments of 32,900 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Quarterly hog and pigs report was slightly friendly to the market and should produce another rally in the summer months.