NEWS

*The United States and Mexico have reached an agreement to strengthen efforts against the New World screwworm after U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins warned of potential restrictions on Mexican cattle imports if Mexico did not act more aggressively. Following discussions with Mexican Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue, both countries committed to enhanced control measures, with Mexico particularly reinforcing its surveillance along the southern border to prevent the pest’s spread. This agreement is critical to protecting livestock industries in both countries and maintaining vital cattle trade, which had faced disruption earlier in the year due to screwworm detections.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.15 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.7 million bushels (mb) of corn to Spain and 4.7 mb of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended April 24, were 65.1 million bushels and now having averaged 66.7 million bushels/week over the most-recent eight-week period vs. last year’s 54.2 mb/week average during the same period. Additionally, last week’s exports were well above the roughly 37.4 mb/week that corn export inspections will need to average through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 2.550 billion bushel export projection vs. last year’s 44.4 million/week average from this point forward. Cumulative export inspections of 1.610 billion bushels are up 29% from last year’s 1.248 billion vs. the USDA’s export projection reflecting an expected 11% increase from last year with four months remaining in the 2024-25 marketing year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended April 25, ticked up to 1.040 million barrels/day (mbpd) from 1.033 mbpd the previous week and reflecting a 5.4% increase from last year’s same-week production of 987,000 bpd but, more impressively, reflecting an all-time record for the last week of April in surpassing 2018’s production this week of 1.032 mbpd. U.S. ethanol stocks last week ticked down to 25.389 million barrels from 25.481 million barrels the previous week while slipping marginally below last year’s same-week stocks of 1.070 billion gallons, but remaining solidly above average late April stocks over the last three years of 1.018 billion gallons.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn planting is 24% complete vs. 25% expected, 12% last week, 25% last year and 22% average. Emergence is 5% vs. 2% last week and 4% last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.01 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections were 16.1 mb last week as they continue their seasonal declining, being the lowest in 33 weeks and down from the previous week’s 20.6 mb but still better than last year’s same-week exports of 10.1 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 21.8 mb/week vs. last year’s 15.2 million/week average during the same period as cumulative inspections of 1.584 billion bushels maintain an 11% gain to last year’s 1.424 billion vs. the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection reflecting an expected 8% increase in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 9.8 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 12.2 million/week average from this point forward.

The USDA Census crush report saw the USDA report U.S. soybean crush in March at 206.6 million bushels, slightly above average market expectations of 205.5 million bushels, while reflecting a rather modest 1.5% increase from last year’s March crush of 203.5 million bushels, but still a new record for the month. USDA slightly revised February crush higher to 189.6 million bushels from 189 million initially reported, but that still left crush for the month down 2% from last year.

U.S. soybean oil production in March was reported at 2.473 billion pounds vs. 2.245 billion in February (revised up from 2.239 billion originally) and 2.404 billion pounds in March last year, bringing October through March marketing year-to-date production to 14.851 billion pounds, up 5.7% from last year’s 14.051 billion vs. the USDA’s 2024-25 marketing year total production estimate of 28.800 billion pounds, reflecting an expected 6.3% increase from last year. USDA reported U.S. soybean oil stocks in March jumped to 2.079 billion pounds from 1.924 billion in February, a much larger increase than expected based on average market expectations of 1.952 billion pounds but still remaining solidly below last year’s March stocks of 2.369 billion pounds and the lowest on a same-month comparison basis in 10 years. USDA reported 454.2 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in the U.S. in March vs. 421.7 million bushels in February but 2.8% below year-ago March usage of 472.1 million bushels, the second consecutive month falling short of year-ago levels as well as in three of the last four months.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, soybean planting is 18% complete vs. 17% expected, 8% last week, 17% last year and 12% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.01 3/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.09 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat exports last week surged to a 31-week high amid the late-season push to get remaining old crop purchases shipped by the end of May, coming in at 23.8 mb, up from the previous week’s 18.7 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 18.5 mb. Over the last three weeks, wheat export inspections averaged 21.7 mb/week vs. last year’s 19.3 million/week average during the same period but, more importantly, solidly above the roughly 14.4 mb/week average that will be needed over the final five weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year to reach the USDA’s 820 million bushel export projection. Cumulative export inspections of 715 million bushels are up 15% from last year’s 623 million vs. USDA estimating exports will be up 16% vs. last year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, winter wheat conditions rose 4% to 49% good/excellent vs. 47% expected, 45% last week and 49% last year. Spring wheat planting is 30% complete vs. 31% expected, 17% last week, 31% last year, 21% average. Cotton planting is 15% complete vs. 11% last week, 14% last year, 14% average. Oats are 61% planted vs. 53% last week/53% average. North Dakota is at 10% planted and Minnesota is at 3% planted.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks-to-usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $3.12 higher while feeder cattle closed $2.35 higher.

Last week, moderate to active fed cattle cash trade in the North at $222 live and $350 dressed, which is $5 firmer on a live basis compared to last week. Moderate trade volumes in the South at $218 live, which is mostly $5 to $6 higher than the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout moved higher this week with the Choice cutout adding $9.47/cwt. and the Select cutout increasing $7.93/cwt.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were steady with last week at 946 pounds, which is 27 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales were 12,900 mts for 2025 with shipments of 15,800 mts.

Last week, the boxed beef sold for export increased 84 loads from the prior week to 819 loads, for a 11.4% increase. Compared to the same week last year, sales declined 142 loads for a 15% decline. Year to date, the sales are 13,902 loads, which is 524 loads below last year for a 4% year-to-year decline.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.60 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending April 19 has weights at 291.3 pounds vs. 291 pounds last week and 287 pounds last year.

Net pork sales of 34,500 mts for 2025 with shipments of 25,800 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The tariffs will hurt pork exports, leaving rally attempts as selling opportunities.