NEWS

*The USDA has suspended all imports of live cattle, horses, and bison from Mexico effective immediately due to the northward spread of the New World Screwworm, a parasitic fly that poses a severe threat to livestock. The screwworm, eradicated from the U.S. in 1966, has been detected in Mexico’s Oaxaca and Veracruz states–still several hundred miles from the U.S. border but close enough to trigger concern. The ban will be reviewed monthly, with an initial reassessment in two weeks. While the suspension may temporarily disrupt cattle supply chains, the USDA and livestock groups emphasize that the economic and animal health risks of a U.S. outbreak would be far worse. Control efforts include the strategic release of sterile flies across southern Mexico to curb the pest’s advance.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.06 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended May 8, were 48.2 million bushels but down solidly from the previous week’s 63.7 mb and well below average exports over the previous nine-week period of 66.4 million bushels/week while being the lowest in 11 weeks. However, cumulative export inspections of 1.722 billion bushels remain up 29% from last year’s 1.339 billion vs the USDA’s 2.550 billion bushel export projection. In order to reach the USDA’s April WASDE report export projection, corn export inspections would need to average roughly 36.7 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 44.3 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended May 9, fell to 993,000 barrels/day from 1.020 mbpd, while slipping below last year’s same-week production of 1.000 mbpd (294 mil gal/week) and falling to the lowest level in 53 weeks. U.S. ethanol stocks last week rose to 25.445 million barrels from 25.191 million barrels the previous week and returning stocks to record high same-week status as the upturn in stocks went against the strong seasonal bias for declines in May.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, the U.S. corn crop is 62% planted vs. 47% last year and 56% on average with emergence 28% vs. 21% last year and 21% on average.

The monthly USDA supply/demand report saw old crop corn ending stocks adjusted to 1.415 bb vs. 1.465 bb last month vs. 1.445 estimated as the USDA increased exports by 50 mb. New crop corn stocks of 1.800 billion bushels (bb) vs. estimates of 2.042 bb as yields were estimated at 181.0 bpa and production of 15.820 bb.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.01 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.4 mb of soybeans to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 15.7 mb were up from the previous week’s 12.3 mb and comparable to last year’s same-week exports of 15.9 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 16.3 mb/week vs. last year’s 13.9 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 1.613 billion bushels remaining up 11% from last year’s 1.453 billion vs. the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection reflecting an expected 8% increase from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s old crop export target, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 9.9 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 11.9 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, soybeans are 48% planted vs. 34% last year and 37% on average with 17% emerged vs. 15% last year and 11% on average.

In the monthly supply/demand report; Old crop soybeans stocks estimated at 350 mb vs. 375 mb last month and 371 mb estimated as exports were increased by 25 mb. New crop stocks at 295 mb vs. estimates of 380 mb as yields were estimated at 52.5 mb with production of 4.340 bb.

In the monthly NOPA crush report, April crush was pegged at 190.226 mb, well above estimates of 184.6 mb, although that is down from last month’s 194.6 mb and substantially above last year’s 169.4 mb. Soybean oil stocks are pegged at 1.527 bp above estimates of 1.412 bp and last month’s 1.498 bp but well below last year’s 1.832 bp.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.03 3/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.00 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week, now with only three full weeks remaining in the 2024-25 marketing year, of 14.9 mb were little-changed from the previous week’s 15.1 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 14.1 mb, while having averaged 18.2 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 15.4 mb/week average during the same period. Cumulative export inspections of 745 million bushels are up nearly 15% from last year’s 649 million vs. USDA’s 820 million bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 16% increase from last year. Wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 14.0 mb/week over the final few weeks of 24-25 to reach the USDA’s export projection vs. last year’s 12.8 mb/week average for the same period.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat is 66% planted vs. 59% a year ago and 49% on average with 27% emerged vs. 23% last year and 19% on average. Winter wheat is 54% g/e vs. 51% last week and 50% on average with 53% in the head stage vs. 55% last year and 45% on average.

In the monthly supply/demand report;, old wheat stocks were estimated at 841 mb vs. estimates of 859 mb and 846 mb last month as food usage was increased by 5 mb.

The new crop wheat ending stocks were estimated at 923 mb, the largest since 2019-20. Wheat production estimated at 1.921 bb above estimates of 1.886 bb although down from last year’s 1.971 bb. All winter wheat production estimated at 1.364 bb vs. estimates of 1.325 bb and last year’s 1.349 bb; HRW production estimated at 784 mb vs. estimates of 748 mb and last year’s 770 mb; SRW production estimated at 345 mb vs. estimates of 342 mb and 342 mb last year.

The Wheat Quality Council tour estimated the Kansas wheat yield at 53 bushels/acre, above the USDA’s 50 bushels/acre estimate in this month’s Crop Production report released on Monday, up sharply from last year’s tour-estimated yield of 46.5 bushels/acre as well as the most-recent five-year average tour estimate of 44.3 bushels/acre while being the second highest tour-estimated Kansas yield on record. Despite the higher yield estimate than USDA, the tour pegged the Kansas wheat crop at 339 million bushels, slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 345 million bushels but still up modestly from last year’s 307 million bushels as the tour’s production estimate implies they are assuming a lower harvesting percentage for Kansas than USDA is expecting.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks-to-usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $2.35 lower while feeder cattle closed $2.37 lower.

Last week, active fed cattle cash trade in the North at $229 live and $358 dressed, which is $1 to $3 firmer live and steady dressed compared to last week. Moderate trade volumes in the South at $218 to $220 live, which is steady with the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout continued higher this week with the Choice cutout adding $2.01/cwt. and the Select cutout increasing $5.98/cwt.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were down 8 pounds from last week at 938 pounds, which is 15 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales were 14,600 mts for 2025 with shipments of 13,600 mts.

Boxed beef sold for export last week declined 309 loads from the prior week and 415 loads from the week last year for a week-to-week decline of 38% and a year-over-year decline of 45%. Since the first of January, the total sales for export reached 15,227 loads for a decline of 687 loads or 4% from last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $2.77 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending May 3 has weights at 290.5 pounds vs. 291.6 pounds last week and 288.1 pounds last year.

Net pork sales were 24,600 mts for 2025 with shipments of 26,500 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The tariffs will hurt pork exports, leaving rally attempts as selling opportunities.