NEWS

*Dustin Echelbarger, a former salesman for TTG/Truland Equipment in Swayzee, Indiana, was charged June 11 with 17 felony counts involving alleged corrupt business influence, fraud, and forgery in connection with sales of farm machinery. According to an affidavit filed by the Grant County, Indiana prosecutor’s office seeking Echelbarger’s arrest, “From January 2023 through September of 2024, Echelbarger conducted approximately eight fraudulent transactions for his own personal financial gain.” Prosecutors allege that throughout those eight transactions, “Dustin has forged signatures on checks or purchase orders 17 times; has created fraudulent purchase orders 14 times; and has violated the Corrupt Business Indiana Criminal Code 8 times.”

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.01 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.9 million bushels (mb) of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended June 12, were 65.9 million bushels and little-changed from the previous week’s 68.1 mb while continuing to run at an exceptionally strong pace, having averaged 63 million bushels/week over the last eight weeks vs. 49.7 million/week average during the same period last year. Inspections will need to average roughly 35.1 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s new export target vs. last year’s 41.2 mb/week average from this point forward. Cumulative corn export inspections of 2.049 billion bushels are up nearly 29% from last year’s 1.595 billion vs. USDA estimating exports this year to be up 16% from year-ago levels.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended June 13, slipped to 1.109 million barrels/day from 1.120 mbpd the previous week, which set a new all-time weekly record and was 4.9% above year-ago same-week production of 1.057 mbpd.

Over the last eight weeks, ethanol production averaged plus-3.5% vs. last year at 1.060 mbpd. U.S. ethanol stocks last week rose moderately to 24.120 million barrels from 23.734 million barrels the previous week and keeping stocks a minor 2.1% (21 million gallons) above year-ago same-week stocks of 992 million gallons and record high on a same-week comparison basis.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn is rated 72% g/e vs. 71% last week and 72% last year. The crop is 94% emerged, up 7% from last week and right on the average for this date.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the U.S. will plant a large amount of acres next spring.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.06 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 120,000 mts of meal to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 7.9 mb were down from the previous week’s 20.5 mb, as well as last year’s same-week exports of 12.5 mb while being the second lowest of the 2024-25 marketing year so far, Soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 12.4 mb/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection, a level not achieved in four of the last five weeks.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. soybeans are rated 66% g/e vs. 68% last week and 70% last year. Emergence stands at 84% vs. 75% last week and 83% on average.

The monthly NOPA crush report came in at 192.829 mb, slightly below estimates of 193.5 mb but higher than last month’s 190.2 mb and well above last year’s 183.6 mb. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.373 bp, well below estimates of 1.451 bp and last month’s 1.527 bp and substantially below last year’s 1.724 bp. This was the lowest May stocks total in the last 21 years.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.25 1/2 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.25 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections, in the second week of the 2025-26 marketing year, were 14.3 mb vs. the previous week’s 11.9 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 15.1 mb. With the new marketing year just getting underway, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 15.5 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection vs. last year’s 15.2 million/week average from this point forward with cumulative inspections of 21.7 mb comparing to 26 million last year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. spring wheat is 57% g/e vs. 53% last week and 76% last year with emergence reported at 89% and 4% headed, both slightly behind the five-year average. Winter wheat is 52% g/e vs. 54% last week and 49% last year. Winter wheat harvest is 10% complete, up from 4% last week and 27% last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers will want to use rallies to hedge new crop wheat amid large supplies and large stocks-to-usage ratio.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $2.52 lower while feeder cattle closed $3.60 lower.

The monthly Cattle on Feed report is friendly to the industry and bullish for the placement of cattle. On feed supplies were pegged at 99% vs. estimates of 98.9%, placements at 92% vs. estimates of 94.1% and marketings at 90% vs. estimates of 90.7%.

Last week, moderate-to-active fed cattle cash trade in the North at $236 to $237 live and $376 dressed, which is $5 to $6 softer live and $4 lower dressed compared to last week. Light trade thus far in the South at $228 live, which is $7 softer than the prior week. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout continued higher this week with the Choice cutout adding $17.07/cwt. and the Select cutout increasing $11.52/cwt.

Last week, boxed beef sold for export declined 21 loads from the prior week and 165 loads from the same week last year. Year to date sales were, 1,124 loads below last year at 19,325 loads for a decline of 5.5%.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were down 4 pounds from last week at 940 pounds, which is 16 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales of 15,300 mts for 2025 with shipments of 14,500 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $2.22 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending June 14 has weights down to 286.5 pounds vs. 287.2 pounds last week and 287.4 pounds last year.

Net pork sales of 9,700 mts for 2025 with shipments of 33,800 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The tariffs will hurt pork exports, leaving rally attempts as selling opportunities.