NEWS

*NFA has ordered Revankar Consultancy LLC (Revankar Consultancy), a former NFA Member commodity pool operator and commodity trading advisor located in San Diego, California, not to reapply for NFA membership or act or be listed as a principal of an NFA Member. NFA has also ordered Shailendra Revankar (Revankar), the former sole associated person and principal of Revankar Consultancy, not to apply for NFA membership, reapply for NFA associate membership, or act or be listed as a principal of an NFA Member.

The Decision, issued by NFA’s Business Conduct Committee (BCC), is based on a complaint issued by the BCC and a settlement offer submitted by Revankar Consultancy and Revankar, in which they neither admitted nor denied the allegations. The complaint alleged that Revankar Consultancy and Revankar failed to observe high standards of commercial honor and just and equitable principles of trade by failing to prioritize the interests of participants in the pool they operated, in violation of Compliance Rule 2-4. The complaint also alleged that Revankar Consultancy caused the pool to make an improper loan or advance of pool assets, in violation of NFA Compliance Rule 2-45. Further, the complaint alleged that Revankar Consultancy received funds for the purchase of interests in the pool in its name rather than the pool’s name, comingled pool assets and failed to distribute account statements to pool participants, in violation of NFA Compliance Rule 2-13(a).

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.25 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.3 million bushels (mb) of corn to an unknown destination and 9.8 mb of corn to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended July 10, were 50.7 million bushels, but down from the previous week’s 61.6 mb and were the lowest in 20 weeks. However, this week’s inspections were still solidly above the roughly 36.9 million bushels/week that will be needed over the last seven weeks of the marketing year to reach their export target vs. last year’s 41.7 mb/week average from this point forward. Cumulative export inspections of 2.276 billion bushels are up 30% from last year’s 1.757 billion vs. USDA estimating exports this year to be up 22% from 2023/24.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn conditions are now the highest in nine years at 74% good/excellent. This was equal to the 74% expected, 74% last week and 68% last year. Thirty-four percent of the crop is silking vs. 33% on average, and 7% is now in the dough stage vs. 5% on average.

In the weekly EIA report, ethanol average daily production for the week ending July 11 averaged 1.087 million barrels. This was up 0.2% from last week and down 1.7% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.036 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.609 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 23.635 million barrels. This was a new high stocks level for this week of the year. The previous high was 23.553 million barrels in 2022. This was the lowest since Dec. 20, 2024.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the window for summer marketing is slowly closing.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.40 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.4 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 5.4 mb, were down from the previous week’s 14.7 mb and were a marketing year low but, more importantly, were notably below the roughly 16.1 million bushels/week that inspections will need to average over the final seven weeks of 2024-25 to reach the USDA’s just-raised 1.865 billion bushel export projection, which we were surprised by and expect to ultimately prove to be an unwarranted increase. Over the last five weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 8.9 million bushels/week, well below the “needed” pace, while exports last year during the same period averaged 10.9 mb/week and 14.1 mb/week from this point forward. Cumulative export inspections of 1.705 billion bushels are up 10% from last year, in line with the USDA’s projected percentage gain from 2023-24 for now.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. soybean conditions rose to the highest levels in 9 years to 70% good/excellent vs. 67% expected, 66% last week and 68% last year. Forty-seven percent is blooming vs. 47% on average with 15% setting pods vs. 14% on average.

The June NOPA crush came in at 185.7 mb vs. estimates of 185.5 mb, well above last year’s 175.6 mb although slightly lower than last month’s 192.8 mb. Soybean oil stocks at 1.366 bp, were slightly above estimates of 1.343 bp but down slightly from last month’s 1.373 bp and well below last year’s 1.622 bp. This was the lowest June oil stocks in the last 21 years.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.12 1/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.12 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 16.2 mb were down slightly from the previous week’s 19.2 mb, while Inspections through the first six weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year averaged 14.7 mb/week (14.8 million/week last year), slightly below the roughly 16.1 mb/week average that will be needed through the end of next May to reach the USDA’s just-raised 850 million bushel export projection. Cumulative export inspections of 84 million bushels are nearly unchanged from last year’s 87 million, while wheat inspections last year averaged 15.3 mb/week from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat conditions improved to 54% good/excellent vs. 50% expected, 50% last week and 77% last year. 78% of the crop is in the head stage vs. 75% on average. Winter wheat harvest is now 63% complete vs. 64% expected, 53% last week, 70% last year and 64% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should roll hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $8.35 higher while feeder cattle closed $16.07 higher.

Last week, fed cattle cash trade in the North this week was moderate at $240 live and $380 dressed, mostly steady with last week’s trade. In the South, trade was light to moderate at $230 to $231 live, which is steady to $2 firmer than week-ago trade. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout was lower this week with the Choice cutout down $12.29/cwt and the Select cutout declining $14.95/cwt

Last week, boxed beef sold for export increased 94 loads from the prior week to 667 loads for a 16% increase. However, compared to the same week during 2024, the sales wee 168 loads smaller for a 20% decrease. The year-to-date boxed beef sales through last week were 1,408 loads below last year at 21,977 loads for a 6.1% year-on-year decline.

USDA steer carcass weights were steady with the previous week at 933 pounds, which is 17 pounds up from year-ago levels.

Net beef sales of 8,800 mts for 2025 with shipments of 10,300 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the third quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management as supplies increase and demand slows.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.20 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending July 12 with weights at 282.7 pounds vs. 282.7 pounds last week and 284.7 pounds last year.

Net pork sales were 17,100 mts for 2025 with shipments of 26,500 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Supplies should increase into the late third and fourth quarters, which will weigh on values.