Corn and soybean yield prospects have never looked much better nationwide in July than today, but can we produce ourselves to a profitable margin? Two hundred fifty bushel-per-acre corn at $4 per bushel is $1,000 an acre, which for most is near breakeven. Hard to live off of breakeven.

Farmers are always reluctant to take either yield or price for granted. Corn and soybean technical price outlooks are grim …if production is high and demand is not because of dysfunctional export markets.

The technical analysis suggests that the corn and soybean markets will take out August 2024 lows 385/945 before this bear market can finish. Thus, potential exists to lose a lot of money. Many farmers were expecting short-term pain from President Trump’s trade war, but a payoff longer term. The pain is here, and how far away the long-term gain is, if any, no one knows. Some may not survive that long. I think that countries will commit to U.S. ag purchases in trade deals, but these deals are being forced on our trading partners which will cause them to chafe. They are not willing happy customers and do not trust us (and why should they?). Trade deals appear to have a short shelf life. What is touted as “the best deal ever” gets ditched for new negotiations a couple years later, which doesn’t fit investment return horizons. This president always wants something better than what he has got (like his new airplane) and there is not a good history of them keeping their word either.

With free trade, the government lets commercial business make their own deals while now the White House is doing it for them. Which way do you think will work better longer term? Ironically, the GOP always said it wanted to get government out of business’ way but now could not be more intrusive, changing rules via tweets almost hourly that impact markets.

A workable functioning ag trade deal with China has become a remote prospect. Trade wars are what the word “war” suggests … a battle fought using commercial economic weapons. This is hitting home. Iowa’s first quarter GDP fell 6.1%, so the rural economy is sliding into recession on the back of a weak farm economy. Nebraska’s GDP decline was almost as bad. Are we leading the nation into a downturn? WalletHub rates state economies and has Iowa’s at dead last.

“According to a release from WalletHub, the report compares all 50 states, along with the District of Columbia, “across 28 key indicators of economic performance and strength.

In the report, states are ranked according to economic activity, economic health, and innovation potential.

Out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, Iowa is ranked last in economic activity, 48th in economic health, and 29th in innovation potential.”

Our state legislative leaders actually blamed that on Biden. I blame it on them as they have become the obstacle to progress in this state opposing the corn growers and ethanol industry on CO2 pipelines that can add 600 million bushels of corn demand.

ISU economist Chad Hart says that ag makes up 22% of the state’s economy, and no one in the grain sector is profitable. That 22% is not spread evenly over the state as rural counties are far more dependent on ag than concentrated urban ones. Our legislators have become the crazies killing progress that eminent domain was enacted to protect us from. Iowa’s population growth is flat overall but declining in rural areas contrasted by isolated pockets of urban growth. The Not-In-My-Backyard (NIMBYs) and Citizens-Against-Virtually-Everything (CAVEmen) now run Iowa, impeding the construction of utility infrastructure including power, wind and solar that industry requires to build anything. These folks literally do not like to look at progress.

Iowa has the second largest share of workers aged 65-plus in the nation (23.9%) and the overall population will decline as immigration will no longer contribute youth and growth. Thirty-eight percent of Iowa’s population growth has been immigrants since 2000. ICE will harm economic growth as it spends its $100 billion.

ISU economist Peter Orazem says that the state has not added any jobs since 2018. Does our legislature have a plan? Looks to me like they want to convert our state into a don’t-touch-just-look “museum.”

Iowa has a favorable tax structure so when that doesn’t bring business here, they should ask, “What else is the problem?”

When they reshore American manufacturing, why would they locate new plants here? What is your answer? When prospective businesses see how the state changes the rules when a company like Summit Carbon follows them ready to invest billions into a project and the legislature votes to block them, they will build elsewhere.

So what we have to do is survive all of this stupidity and hope that the legislature comes to its senses.